BNB Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET" [1]. Its rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The named resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1]
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T03:30:00.000Z, which matches the 11:30PM ET end in the title [1]. This is the contract's listed close, not a record of when resolution occurred.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:37:06.684Z [1]. Both are times in a past snapshot, and the recorded status was "active" [1]. The figures below describe that snapshot only.
The saved prices were "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They sum to 1.000 in this record, so the snapshot shows a close split between the two outcomes. It does not show what a trade would cost or fill at.
The sample consists of one saved market from one provider event, and the evidence marks it as complete, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The provider's sample warning notes that the listed markets do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is included [1]. Volume and trader counts are not in the evidence, so nothing here indicates liquidity or how many participants hold either view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the BNB price at the start of the window or during the window, so it cannot indicate which way the contract will resolve. It also does not explain why the prices sit where they do. Chainlink's data stream is the only resolution source named, so a comparison with other platforms or spot markets involves different rules and should not be read as the same outcome. No actual resolution is recorded in the supplied evidence.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto price contract from Polymarket, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET". It asks whether the price of BNB over a specific 15-minute window will end up higher or lower than where it started. The rules are set out in the provider's event description [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the measure is an average over the window rather than a single price at the end, a short spike near the close does not by itself decide the outcome in the way a closing-price contract would. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink [1]. The provider states that only this Chainlink data stream counts, and not other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader comparing this market with BNB prices quoted on an exchange should keep that distinction in mind, since the two can differ. The provider's event record lists an end time of 2026-10-20T03:30:00.000Z and a status of active at the time it was observed [1]. The end time is the listed close for the contract. It is not a report of what the price did in that window, and the rules do not describe any outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP for one specific 15-minute window finishes at or above the window's starting price [1]. It gives a yes or no answer about short-term direction, using a defined data stream as the reference [1]. Anyone reading the market's price should treat it as the trading price of that contract, which reflects demand for the two outcomes on the platform, and not as an independently verified forecast. The rules tie the result to the Chainlink stream only, so the contract does not speak to BNB prices on other venues [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price source is used?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the provider says other sources or spot markets are not used for this market [1].
Does a listed end time mean the outcome is known?
No. The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-20T03:30:00.000Z [1], which marks when the contract closes. The event record does not report the resulting price movement.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.