Macva vs Beograd: Spread
K 0 contracts
1
4
Macva vs Beograd: Spread
K 0 contracts
1
4
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
MAC vs OBE (Oct 17) If Beograd wins by more than X goals in the Macva vs Beograd professional Serbian SuperLiga soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T21:00:06.041Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event covers a Serbian SuperLiga match between Macva and Beograd, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 [1]. The rules say that if Beograd wins by more than X goals "after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each of the four saved markets applies a different goal-margin threshold to one side winning, so their wording differs even though they share a match. The event is listed as active, and the excerpt states that "This market will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed on October 16, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, and the source was retrieved at 00:28 UTC on October 17 [1]. These are snapshots, not current or executable quotes, so they may not reflect prices today.
Among the four saved markets, the Yes prices are:
- Beograd wins by more than 2.5 goals: 0.50 Yes, 0.50 No
- Macva wins by more than 1.5 goals: 0.50 Yes, 0.50 No
- Macva wins by more than 2.5 goals: 0.495 Yes, 0.505 No
- Beograd wins by more than 1.5 goals: 0.23 Yes, 0.77 No
These markets ask different questions, so they should be read individually and not averaged or ranked as one distribution. A lower Yes price on the Beograd 1.5 threshold does not show that any other margin is more or less likely. The coverage record reports 4 of 4 markets included and no partial sample [1], but the sample warning states that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1].
What remains uncertain
The supplied event has a listed end time of "not supplied" [1]. The market records show an end date of October 19, 2026 at 17:00 UTC [1]. That date is a provider field, not a confirmed event date, and it does not establish when the match will be played or when the contract will settle. The evidence does not explain any price movement, indicate trading volume or the number of participants, or provide a result. Only one source is supplied, and no cross-platform comparison is possible from this snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: Macva vs Beograd: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T21:00:06.041Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This event on Kalshi concerns a professional Serbian SuperLiga soccer match between Macva and Beograd, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 [1]. The contract is about the winning margin rather than the winner. According to the contract rules in the source, the match is measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and extra time and penalties are not included [1]. The saved event includes four contracts on the margin, each asking whether one side wins by more than a stated number of goals: Beograd by more than 2.5, Macva by more than 1.5, Macva by more than 2.5, and Beograd by more than 1.5 [1]. The source states that the event is active and that the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The market rules say it will close and expire after a winner is declared [1]. Because the source does not describe the match result, lineups, or any events after the saved snapshot, nothing here indicates how the match finished. The source also states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or otherwise officially connected with the Governing League [1]. The contract text itself is the main reference for how each market settles, so readers should consult the provider rules for resolution details beyond the summary above [1].
Why It Matters
Each contract on this event measures the goal margin of a single match, not just who wins. The Beograd by more than 2.5 and Macva by more than 2.5 contracts ask whether a larger margin occurs, while the 1.5 contracts ask whether a smaller threshold is cleared [1]. The provider rules define the scoring window as the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time, which excludes extra time and penalty shootouts [1]. This means a match decided only in extra time or on penalties would not, under the rules as summarized, count toward a margin above a threshold [1]. The contract prices in the saved snapshot reflect trading activity at one point in time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean on these contracts?
According to the source, a market resolves to Yes if the named side wins by more than the stated number of goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties [1].
Do extra time or penalties count toward the margin?
No. The contract rules state that the measurement does not include extra time or penalties [1].
When do these markets close?
The source says the market will close and expire after a winner is declared [1]. The source also says the listed end time was not supplied [1], so no specific closing time should be assumed from the saved data.
Is Kalshi connected to the league?
The source states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
