Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a single Bitcoin price comparison in the window titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET." According to the contract rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1]
The rules name a specific data source. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price quoted elsewhere should expect that the two may not measure the same thing.
The listed end time is 2026-10-19T22:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC. Readers should use the listed end time when checking when the contract closes.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is dated 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T01:42:16.005Z [1]. These are two different times: one is when the provider data was observed, and the other is when this record was retrieved. Neither is the contract's close, and neither shows how the contract finally resolved. The provider status was recorded as active [1].
The saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The gap between them is small. This record does not explain why the prices were where they were, and it does not show how many traders took either side. Trading volume is not included in this excerpt, so it also cannot be used to judge liquidity.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The data is therefore complete for this saved event, but it does not establish that Polymarket lists every possible outcome for Bitcoin price movements.
What remains uncertain
This evidence does not show whether the market has closed, what the Chainlink TWAP was during the window, or how the contract resolved. It also does not show any Bitcoin price at the start of the range. Because the snapshot predates the listed end time, it should not be read as a current price or a final result.
No other platform's contract is included here, so this record cannot be compared with an alternative Bitcoin market. Differences in wording, time basis, or data source could make similarly titled contracts pay out differently.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET." It is listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price over a 15-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The provider states that the market "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The settlement reference is specific. The provider names Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and says the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. This means the outcome depends on that one data stream, not on a general reading of Bitcoin's price from exchanges or other feeds. A reader comparing this contract with other Bitcoin prices should check the source named in the rules first. The listed end time is 2026-10-19T22:45:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's listed end, not evidence that anything happened at that time. The provider's status for the saved event was "active" when the record was observed [1]. The price snapshot in this entry (Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495) is a single observation from the provider record and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one 15-minute window, from 6:30PM to 6:45PM ET on October 19. It does not measure Bitcoin's price at a single moment. The comparison uses a time-weighted average price across the window, compared with the price at the window's beginning [1]. Because the average is taken across the interval, the final resolution can differ from the price at the close of the window. The rules also limit the outcome to Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, so the contract tracks that specific measure rather than Bitcoin's price across all markets [1]. Readers should keep these scope points in mind when interpreting the contract's price.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
The Up outcome requires the TWAP of Bitcoin over the stated window to be greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, according to the provider's rules [1].
What data source decides the result?
The provider names Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and states that other sources and spot markets are not used for this market [1].
Does the listed end time mean the contract has settled?
No. The listed end time of 2026-10-19T22:45:00.000Z is the time stated in the contract details [1]. The supplied evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Do the displayed prices show the chance that Bitcoin rises?
No. The prices are a snapshot from the provider record at one observation time [1]. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.