Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET" [1]. Its rules say it will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with another platform's Hyperliquid contract should check whether that contract uses the same window, the same data source, and the same comparison rule. Matching titles alone do not establish equivalent contracts.
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:45:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed close time, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:27:25.424Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier observation, not live conditions when you read this.
The saved snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The contract's status was recorded as active [1]. The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
Coverage is complete for this saved event: one market was reported and one was included, with no partial sample [1]. Because the event has only these two outcomes in the record, there is no omitted outcome to compare against.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and this analysis does not attempt to explain them. It also does not include any information about the Hyperliquid price during the 11:40 to 11:45 AM ET window, so the eventual result cannot be inferred from the snapshot.
The source records that all saved markets for this event are included, but "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any differences in price between this contract and similar contracts on other platforms should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without checking rules, windows, data sources, and close times.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on Polymarket that asks whether the price of HYPE/USD, the trading pair for Hyperliquid, will finish a five-minute window higher or lower than where it started. The event is titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET" and is listed with two outcomes, Up and Down [1]. The contract's resolution rule compares a time-weighted average price (TWAP) over the window in the title with the price at the beginning of that window. If the TWAP is greater than or equal to the starting price, the market resolves to Up. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The source states that the TWAP is generated by Chainlink and is taken from its HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, which is the only data the rules name for resolution [1]. The rules also say the market concerns the Chainlink data stream specifically, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading the contract should therefore look at the named data stream rather than at prices quoted elsewhere. The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:45:00Z, which is the close of the window in the title [1]. The market snapshot in this article was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z and showed the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are observed snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved event contains only this one market, so no other outcomes are described here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of HYPE/USD over one five-minute window, as defined by a Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because resolution depends on an average over the window compared with a starting price, the result is set by the data stream's rules rather than by a single trade or a single quoted price [1]. The contract therefore offers a narrow, rules-based question about short-term price direction for the named pair and time range [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink TWAP of HYPE/USD over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used to resolve the contract?
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
When does the window close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:45:00Z, and the window in the title is 11:40AM to 11:45AM ET on October 16 [1].
Do the prices shown mean the outcome is likely?
The snapshot prices of 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z [1]. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a forecast.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
