BNB Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET" and is listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with a spot price chart or another exchange's BNB feed should expect the rules to differ, because the resolution depends on this specific data stream.
The listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:45:00.000Z [1]. That listed time is a contract closing time, not a record of resolution. The supplied evidence does not show how or when this contract resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation was recorded at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:47:00.624Z [1]. These are two different timestamps, and both are earlier than the listed end time. The status recorded at retrieval was "active" [1]. These values describe the saved record only. They do not show the market's status now.
The saved prices were "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record. The supplied data does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it cannot show how liquid the contract was or how many participants took those prices.
The sample covers one saved market in one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. This means the saved record contains every market for this event, but it does not establish that these are all possible outcomes of the real world.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were where they were. It also does not show any news, any later price history, or the final TWAP value for the window. Because the record contains a single contract, no comparison with other contracts or platforms is supported here.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval crypto price contract listed on Polymarket and titled "BNB Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET." The contract asks whether the price of BNB will finish a five-minute window at or above where it started. The rules are the main way to understand it, and they are stated in the provider's event description [1]. According to those rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The word "average" matters here. The comparison does not use only the price at the final moment, but the average across the window, measured against the starting price [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink. The rules name the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink as the source of information, and state that the contract concerns the price in that stream rather than any other data feed or spot market [1]. A trader reading the price of BNB on a different exchange would therefore not be reading the figure that determines this contract. The listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:45:00.000Z [1]. That corresponds to 4:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time on October 15, matching the title. The window itself runs from 4:40 PM to 4:45 PM ET. The end time describes when the contract closes, not when the result is known to the public or when the platform confirms it. The price snapshot shown for this contract was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, roughly two and a half hours before the window opened. At that time the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are recorded provider prices from that earlier moment. They are not executable quotes, they are not verified probabilities, and they do not describe the market at the time the window was running.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether BNB's time-weighted average price over a five-minute window, as reported in Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, ends at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it is a short fixed interval with a binary outcome, it isolates one question about short-term price direction. Its design depends on the data stream named in the rules, so the outcome is tied to that single source rather than to the broader market for BNB [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the winning outcome decided?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price feed determines the result?
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Why does the time-weighted average matter?
Because the rules compare the average price across the window with the starting price, rather than only the price at the close of the window [1].
When does this contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:45:00.000Z, which matches 4:45 PM ET on October 15 as shown in the title [1].
Do the listed prices show the likely outcome?
No. The recorded prices of 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down are a single snapshot from an earlier time. They are not verified probabilities or tradable quotes [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
