Shenzhen Leopards vs Jiangsu Dragons: Spread
K 4.5K contracts
1
12
Shenzhen Leopards vs Jiangsu Dragons: Spread
K 4.5K contracts
1
12
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 4.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
12
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
LEO vs JIA (Oct 19) If Shenzhen Leopards wins by more than X points in the Shenzhen Leopards vs Jiangsu Dragons men's professional China CBA basketball game originally scheduled for Oct 19, 2026 at 7:35 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. This market includes overtime. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event covers a men's professional China CBA basketball game between Shenzhen Leopards and Jiangsu Dragons, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 7:35 AM EDT [1]. Each contract asks whether a team wins by more than a stated margin. The rules say that if Shenzhen Leopards wins by more than X points, the market resolves to Yes, and that overtime is included [1]. The rules also say that if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original start, the market resolves on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price [1].
The market titles use "over" rather than "more than," but the margin logic is the same. Each title is a separate threshold, so these are not interchangeable contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 06:00 UTC on October 19, 2026, and retrieved at 07:14 UTC the same day [1]. These are historical readings from that time, not live quotes. The sample includes all 12 saved markets for this event, and the provider lists the event as active [1].
Yes prices range from 0.475 to 0.50. The Shenzhen Leopards "over 2.5 points" contract is at 0.50, while the Shenzhen Leopards "over 6.5 points" contract is at 0.475. Most of the other contracts are at 0.495. Because each threshold is a separate contract, these numbers should be read one contract at a time. They do not form a single probability distribution over margins, and they should not be averaged across thresholds or combined with other platforms. A price gap between two contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity, since the rules, thresholds, and close times may differ.
What remains uncertain
The prices are indicative snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not explain why any price was where it was, and it does not show how many traders are involved. Volume is not included in this analysis and would not indicate liquidity.
The listed close times also need care. The market data shows an end date of October 21, 2026 at 11:35 UTC for every contract [1]. The provider excerpt, however, says the listed end time was not supplied, and says the market will close after a winner is declared [1]. The reader should check the provider's current contract page before relying on any close time. The game's scheduled start is separate from these listed end dates.
References
- Kalshi: Shenzhen Leopards vs Jiangsu Dragons: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi spread contract tied to a men's professional China CBA basketball game between the Shenzhen Leopards and the Jiangsu Dragons. The provider's rules state that the game was originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 7:35 AM EDT [1]. The contract asks whether the Shenzhen Leopards will win by more than a stated number of points. The rules say the market resolves to Yes if that condition is met in the game as originally scheduled [1]. The rules also set out what happens if the game changes. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original start time, the market stays open and resolves on the official final result [1]. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the original start, the rules say all markets resolve to a fair price [1]. The contract includes overtime, so any overtime played counts toward the final result [1]. The market closes and expires once a winner is declared [1]. The provider notes that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, or endorsed by the governing league [1]. The saved event record shows the market as active, but it does not supply a listed end time [1]. The contract's rules also do not reveal the game's current status, so readers should check the provider for any postponement or cancellation notice. The saved market data lists several point thresholds for each team. These include Shenzhen Leopards wins by over 2.5, 6.5, 10.5, 14.5, 18.5, and 22.5 points, and Jiangsu Dragons wins by over 2.5, 6.5, 10.5, 14.5, 18.5, and 22.5 points. Each threshold is a separate contract with its own Yes and No prices. These thresholds are not a ranked list of likely margins, and the prices shown elsewhere are snapshots rather than tradable quotes.
Historical Context
The Chinese Basketball Association is the league that governs the men's professional competition in which this game is played. A Wikipedia article on the 2022-23 CBA season describes that season as the 28th in the league's history. It began on October 21, 2022 and ended on April 5, 2023 [2]. This is historical background only. It does not describe the 2026-27 season, the schedule for this game, or any current league event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single margin-of-victory outcome. It does not ask who wins the game in general. It asks whether the Shenzhen Leopards win by more than a specific number of points [1]. Because each threshold is its own contract, a market on one line answers only that line's question. Traders reading the page should look at the exact threshold and whether the market is a Leopards or Jiangsu line before comparing prices. The rules also define how postponements, cancellations, and overtime affect resolution [1], so those details matter as much as the point threshold.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the Yes outcome to resolve?
The Shenzhen Leopards must win by more than the stated number of points in the game as originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 7:35 AM EDT [1].
What happens if the game is postponed?
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its original start time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official final result [1].
What happens if the game is cancelled?
If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, the rules say all markets resolve to a fair price [1].
Does overtime count?
Yes. The market includes overtime under its rules [1].
Is the provider affiliated with the league?
No. The provider states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or officially connected with the governing league [1].
Does a price near 0.5 mean the outcome has a 50 percent chance?
Not necessarily. The saved prices are snapshots from a provider observation at a specific time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not establish how any price should be interpreted as a probability [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
