Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a single event on Polymarket, "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is "greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the market states that it concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T16:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers comparing the two should check both. The listed end time is the scheduled close, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z and retrieved at 2026-10-31T00:18:25.227Z [1]. These are two different times, and the prices describe the observation time only. The provider status was recorded as "active" [1].
The snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two outcomes are complementary within this one market, so the snapshot does not show any cross-platform comparison or arbitrage.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, with 1 of 1 markets included and no partial sample [1]. Nothing in the evidence shows other platforms listing a comparable contract, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here. The evidence also does not report trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, and this snapshot should not be read as indicating any of them.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices took their observed values. It also does not show any price changes between the observation time and the retrieval time, or any later prices. Readers should not assume the 0.505 and 0.495 figures describe current conditions. The final outcome depends on the Chainlink TWAP data during the stated window, which is not included in the supplied evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price market on Hyperliquid, the HYPE/USD pair, for the period listed in its title, October 31 from 12:30 PM to 12:45 PM ET. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of HYPE, as generated by Chainlink, over that time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules also state that the contract concerns the Chainlink TWAP data stream for HYPE/USD, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The provider lists the event as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-31T16:45:00Z [1]. The contract is therefore built around an average over a fifteen-minute window rather than a single trade at the end. Because the outcome compares the average with the starting price, a move that rises and then falls back could still resolve "Up" if the average stays at or above the opening level. Traders reading the contract should check the resolution source named in the rules rather than assume that any price quoted elsewhere will decide the outcome [1]. The market appears as a binary Up or Down contract, and the saved snapshot lists both outcomes with a price for each [1]. A price in this context is a snapshot of where the contract was trading at the observation time. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability that the outcome will occur.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the stated fifteen-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Its usefulness as a reference depends on the rules: it tracks one named data stream and one averaging method, so it does not measure the broader market for HYPE or the price on any other venue [1]. Readers can use the contract's structure to understand what is being priced, including the choice of averaging and the fixed start and end times, while keeping the snapshot prices separate from current conditions.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price source counts for resolution?
The rules specify the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Why is the TWAP used instead of a single price?
The rules define the outcome using the time-weighted average over the window rather than one trade, so the average over the full range is what is compared with the starting price [1].
When does the market end?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-31T16:45:00Z, which matches the end of the 12:45 PM ET window in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.