Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET" on Polymarket [1]. The source states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with other Bitcoin contracts should check the reference source, since a contract tied to a different index, spot venue, or time window would not measure the same thing.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T18:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T19:33:33Z [1]. The recorded prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are prices from that saved observation, not current quotes, and they are not executable prices or verified probabilities. The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-27T14:15:00Z, and the provider status at retrieval was "active" [1]. Because the snapshot predates the retrieval time, it should not be read as the market's position at the time of reading.
The two prices are close and sum to 1.000 in this sample. The evidence does not explain why they sit where they do, and a small gap between two prices is not evidence of a mispricing. Volume is not reported in the evidence, so nothing here speaks to liquidity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes one market, and the coverage record shows that market was included in full with no partial sample [1]. The provider notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only these two outcomes are supplied, so no conclusion about other possible results is supported.
No other platform's prices appear in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Any contract on a different asset, index, or time window should not be averaged with this one. The evidence also contains no information on how the contract has performed historically or on any event beyond the listed close time.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window binary contract on the price of Bitcoin, listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET" [1]. The contract is in the crypto category and the provider lists its status as active [1]. Its rules say it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. This means that a price shown on a different exchange or data feed would not determine the outcome under these rules. The listed end time is 2026-10-27T14:15:00Z [1]. This is the end time recorded in the provider's listing, so it marks when the measurement window closes according to the contract rules. It is not evidence that resolution has occurred or that a result has been published. The provider's data was observed at 2026-10-26T18:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T19:33:34Z [1]. Those times describe when the record was captured, not the contract's closing time or its eventual resolution. Because the contract compares an average over the window with a starting reference price, the result depends on the path of prices during the interval, not only on whether the price is higher at the final moment. The rules define the comparison and the data source, so readers should rely on those definitions rather than on general assumptions about Bitcoin prices.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over a specific five-minute window, as defined by Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the resolution source is fixed by the rules, the contract isolates one data feed and one averaging method rather than general market sentiment. Traders and readers can use the listed rules to understand exactly what outcome the price is tied to. The price shown for the Up or Down outcomes is a snapshot from the provider's record and is not a verified probability or an executable quote.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
The contract resolves to Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes it resolve to Down?
If the TWAP over that range is below the price at the beginning of the range, the contract resolves to Down [1].
Which price data is used to decide the outcome?
The rules name Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, available through the Chainlink data streams page, as the resolution source [1]. The rules state that other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
When does the measurement window end?
The provider's listed end time is 2026-10-27T14:15:00Z [1]. This is the listed end time and does not by itself confirm that the contract has closed or resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.