Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will Wales call a snap election?

Total Volume

$10.46K

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When will Wales call a snap election?

Vol

$10.46K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $10.46K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.46K

100%

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2 markets tracked

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	15%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

15%

Top Probability

$10.46K

Volume

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About This Event

an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Wales call a snap election?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called

If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from befor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will Wales call a snap election?

Volume$10.46K

Markets2

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from befor

KALSHI

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?

If an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from befor

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rz1D7H" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will Wales call a snap election?"></iframe>

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When will Wales call a snap election?

When will Wales call a snap election?

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will Wales call a snap election?

Markets (2)

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will Wales call a snap election?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jan 1, 2028?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an extraordinary general election to the Senedd is called before Jul 1, 2027?

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