This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

MLB: ERA Leader

Name: MLB: ERA Leader
End: 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$945.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

MLB: ERA Leader

Vol

$945.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $945.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $945.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

35 markets tracked

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(35)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	17%
Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	13%
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	13%
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	7%
Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	7%
Will Bryan Woo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	7%
Will Jacob deGrom lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	7%
Will Max Fried lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Garrett Crochet lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Dylan Cease lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	5%
Will Logan Webb lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	5%
Will Seth Lugo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Reynaldo López lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Joe Ryan lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Taj Bradley lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Eduardo Rodriguez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Brayan Bello lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Chad Patrick lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Freddy Peralta lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Gavin Williams lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Carlos Rodón lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Nick Pivetta lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Clay Holmes lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Nolan McLean lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Carmen Mlodzinski lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Matthew Boyd lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Michael Wacha lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Merrill Kelly lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Connelly Early lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	2%
Will José Soriano lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Paul Skenes lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Emerson Hancock lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Bryce Elder lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

17%

Top Probability

$945.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MLB: ERA Leader
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 28, 2026 (80 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $945
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Nick Pivetta lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Matthew Boyd lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Logan Webb lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Joe Ryan lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Merrill Kelly lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Bryce Elder lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Dylan Cease lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Reynaldo López lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Freddy Peralta lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Max Fried lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Bryan Woo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Brayan Bello lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Chad Patrick lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Taj Bradley lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Seth Lugo lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Eduardo Rodriguez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Nolan McLean lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Garrett Crochet lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Gavin Williams lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Carlos Rodón lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Clay Holmes lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Michael Wacha lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Paul Skenes lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Carmen Mlodzinski lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Emerson Hancock lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Jacob deGrom lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will José Soriano lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Jeffrey Springs lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Connelly Early lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 28, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

MLB: ERA Leader

Volume$945.00

Markets35

35 of 35

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

79d 19h remaining

Sep 28, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/s60HSS" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="MLB: ERA Leader"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

MLB: ERA Leader

MLB: ERA Leader

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

MLB: ERA Leader

Markets (35)

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

MLB: ERA Leader

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Tarik Skubal lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Andrew Abbott lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Will Hunter Brown lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Share

Embed Widget