BNB Up or Down - November 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - November 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single 15-minute contract on Polymarket titled "BNB Up or Down - November 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the price history meets a specific test. According to the rules, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A different exchange price or a different BNB contract could therefore point to a different outcome. The listed end time is 2026-11-02T04:15:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-11-02T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-02T01:08:30Z [1]. It records the following prices:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These figures describe the provider's saved data at the observation time. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.000 in this snapshot, and the Up price is 0.010 higher than the Down price. Nothing in the evidence explains that gap.
The sample covers one market from one platform. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because there is no other platform or contract in the sample, this snapshot cannot be compared with other markets. Volume data is not included, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people traded.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the BNB price path during the 15-minute window or the beginning-of-window price. It also does not show how the market moved after the observation time. The status was "active" at observation [1], but this source does not establish whether the contract is open, closed, or resolved at any later time, including the time you read this.
The source also does not report how the contract resolved. Readers should check the Chainlink data stream and the listed end time against the rules above before drawing any conclusion about outcome.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - November 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket asking whether the price of BNB will be up or down over a specific window. The title refers to the period from 11:00 PM to 11:15 PM ET on November 1. [1] The rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down." [1] The comparison is therefore between an average over the window and the starting price, not between the price at the start and the price at a single moment at the end. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink. The rules say the market concerns that stream only, not other sources or spot markets. [1] Prices on other venues therefore do not determine the outcome under these rules. The saved provider record lists an end time of 2026-11-02T04:15:00.000Z. [1] This is the listed closing time in the record, which is distinct from the actual resolution. The provider status recorded at the observation time was active. [1] The evidence does not include the final settlement or any later status, so this article cannot say how the contract resolved or whether it remains open.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a 15-minute window, as defined by a Chainlink TWAP data stream rather than by a single spot price. [1] Because the outcome compares the average over the window with the price at the window's start, a move that occurs late in the window can affect the average differently than a move at the start. The rules also limit the reference to one data stream, so the contract answers a narrow, rule-defined question rather than a general question about BNB's market price. [1]
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise. [1]
Which price data counts for resolution?
Only the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules counts. The rules say the market is not based on other sources or spot markets. [1]
Does the contract price show the probability of an Up outcome?
A saved price is a snapshot from one observation time. It is not a verified probability and not an executable quote, so it should not be read as a confirmed chance of either outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.