NASDAQ-100 Daily Up/Down
K 2.69 contracts
1
1
NASDAQ-100 Daily Up/Down
K 2.69 contracts
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 28384.85 at 64%.
Kalshi
- Above 28384.8564%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.69 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Nov 2, 2026 If the end-of-day price of the NASDAQ-100 on November 02, 2026 is above 28384.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract from Kalshi's NASDAQ-100 Daily Up/Down event. The source says that "If the end-of-day price of the NASDAQ-100 on October 23, 2026 is above 28958.69, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The contract's market title is narrower in time: "Will the NASDAQ-100 be above 28958.69 on Oct 23, 2026 at 4pm EDT?" [1]. Readers should check which timing rule governs, since the excerpt describes an end-of-day price and does not restate the 4pm EDT reference.
The excerpt also states that "The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close" [1]. This wording is more complex than the threshold itself, so readers should confirm how the target is set before comparing it with other contracts. The provider's listed end time is "not supplied" in the retrieved excerpt [1]. The saved market record carries an end date of 2026-10-30T23:00:00.000Z, but the evidence does not explain how that field relates to the October 23 wording, so it should not be treated as the resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-23T05:32:41.044Z [1]. These are separate timestamps. The prices below describe the observation time, not live conditions at the time of reading.
At that observation, the saved Yes price was 0.515 and the No price was 0.485 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this record, the figures reflect a complementary pair rather than an omitted third outcome.
The sample is complete for this saved event. The coverage record shows one market, with one included and no partial sample [1]. Because only this one contract is in the sample, no ranking or comparison across platforms applies. The volume figure was not part of the supplied evidence for interpretation, and volume does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price stood at 0.515 at the observation time, and no reason for any movement is supplied. It also does not show the price at any other time, the status of the contract after the observation, or the actual closing price for October 23, 2026. The excerpt states the provider status as "active" but gives no current status [1].
A difference between this price and a similar contract on another platform would not by itself show an arbitrage opportunity, because contract wording, timing, and target values may differ.
References
- Kalshi: NASDAQ-100 Daily Up/Down. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
NASDAQ-100 Daily Up/Down is a financial market listed on Kalshi that asks whether the NASDAQ-100 index will close above a set level on a specific day. The title of the market identified in the provider data is "Will the NASDAQ-100 be above 28958.69 on Oct 23, 2026 at 4pm EDT?" [1]. The provider's contract rule states that the market resolves to Yes if the end-of-day price of the NASDAQ-100 on October 23, 2026 is above 28958.69 [1]. The rule sets the target value as the end-of-day or closing price of the prior week's close [1]. The outcomes listed for this event are Yes and No [1]. The NASDAQ-100 is an index tied to the Nasdaq Stock Market, which the Wikipedia article describes as an American stock exchange [2]. That article states that the exchange is the largest stock exchange by market capitalization and the first fully electronic stock market, and that it is based in Manhattan, New York City [2]. The index itself is not described in the supplied background beyond its use as the reference for this contract [1]. The provider lists this event as active [1]. The contract's rule text refers to a specific trading day and a specific comparison level, so the market's resolution depends on the closing value on that date rather than on any price path before it. The provider listing does not supply a separate end time in the excerpt used here [1].
Historical Context
The Wikipedia article on the Nasdaq describes the exchange as the first fully electronic stock market and notes that it is among the most active U.S. stock trading venues by volume [2]. Separately, a Wikipedia article describes the initial public offering of SpaceX as occurring on June 12, 2026, at a valuation of US$1.77 trillion, which it describes as the largest IPO ever [3]. The supplied sources do not link that offering to the NASDAQ-100 or to this contract, so it is background only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the NASDAQ-100 closes above 28958.69 on October 23, 2026, using the end-of-day price as defined by the provider [1]. Its value to a reader is that it turns a single daily index level into a yes or no question with a stated threshold and a stated reference point. The provider rule ties the threshold to the prior week's close, which gives the question a defined starting point [1]. The contract's listed Yes and No outcomes show how the provider frames the answer [1]. Any price shown for these outcomes is a provider snapshot and not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the market to resolve to Yes?
According to the provider rule, the market resolves to Yes if the end-of-day price of the NASDAQ-100 on October 23, 2026 is above 28958.69 [1].
What value does the contract use as its reference?
The provider rule says the target value is the end-of-day or closing price of the prior week's close [1].
What are the outcomes for this market?
The provider lists two outcomes, Yes and No [1].
Does the market price show the chance that the index will close above the level?
The price is a provider snapshot. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability, so it should not be read as a confirmed forecast [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
