Who will be arrested before 2027?
PM $532.7K · K 51.8K contracts
3
27
Who will be arrested before 2027?
PM $532.7K · K 51.8K contracts
3
27
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $532.7K · K 51.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
27
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The evidence covers arrest markets for Benjamin Netanyahu from two providers. Kalshi's rules say the market resolves to Yes if he "has been arrested before X 1, Y," where the excerpt shows placeholder dates [1]. Polymarket's broader event resolves Yes if the listed individual "is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [2]. A separate Polymarket event uses an October 31 deadline and requires physical custody plus at least one listed criminal-process element [3].
The rules differ on house arrest. The Polymarket 2026 event lists "Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring" as qualifying [2]. Kalshi says electronic monitoring "without physical custody" does not satisfy the criterion [1], and the October Polymarket event says house arrest and electronic monitoring "will not qualify on their own" [3]. A reader who checks only one rule set could misread the scope.
Listed close times also differ. The Kalshi event lists its end time as "not supplied," while its market end dates are 2027-01-08 and 2026-11-08 [1]. The October Polymarket event names October 31, 11:59 PM ET in its rules, but its listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [3]. Its market title also says "by December 31" [3]. These listed times are provider metadata and do not confirm when an arrest could occur.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z, and sources were retrieved at the same time. The evidence was retrieved at 16:53:27Z on the same date. These are snapshot prices, not live quotes.
The recorded Yes prices for Netanyahu were 0.05 for the Kalshi contract before January 1, 2027 [1], 0.015 for the Kalshi contract before November 1, 2026 [1], 0.048 for the Polymarket market titled "by December 31" [3], and 0.0685 for the Polymarket market "before 2027" [2]. Because these contracts have different deadlines and wording, their differences should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity or a single consensus.
The Polymarket "Who will be arrested" event is a partial sample: 12 of 24 markets were included, ordered by Yes price. The included Yes prices run from 0.2 for John Brennan down to 0.0505 for José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero [2]. Omitted names cannot be assumed to have lower prices, and rankings should not be combined with other events.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price moved, and it contains no news about any individual. It also gives no volume figures, trader counts, or evidence about how past markets performed. The Kalshi excerpt uses placeholder dates, and its listed end time is not supplied, so the exact cutoff is unclear. Rule text and listed times also conflict in the October Polymarket event. Prices reflect the snapshot only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
References
- Kalshi: Will Netanyahu be arrested?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
- Polymarket: Who will be arrested before 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
- Polymarket: Netanyahu arrested by…?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This article explains a family of prediction-market contracts that ask whether a named public figure will be arrested before a deadline. The contract is a yes or no question. Its payout depends on the exact wording of the resolution rules, not on general news about legal trouble. The supplied rules for the Netanyahu contracts define an arrest narrowly. Under the Kalshi rules, an arrest means being taken into physical custody by law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement in response to an arrest warrant, or being formally booked or processed after detention [1]. The Polymarket rules use similar language, adding that being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring can qualify [2]. A separate Polymarket event uses a narrower test that requires physical custody together with a criminal booking, charge, warrant, or court proceeding [3]. The rules also list what does not count. An arrest warrant that is issued but not carried out does not qualify. Brief detention without an arrest, questioning or interviews, and being named in an indictment without arrest are excluded [1][2]. The Polymarket event on criminal booking states that release on bail, dismissal of charges, acquittal, or pardon after a qualifying arrest does not change the outcome [3]. Each rule set has its own deadline. The Polymarket events close on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with a listed end time of January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC [2][3]. The Kalshi rules state that the market closes and expires early if an arrest occurs [1]. The Kalshi Netanyahu event lists an end time that was not supplied in the excerpt [1]. The market prices on this page are snapshots from the observation time shown above. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of arrest. Trading volume and price levels do not show how many people are trading or how liquid a market is.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow event: whether the named person is arrested within the stated window, as the rules define arrest. Because the definitions differ between providers, two contracts about the same person can resolve differently. The Kalshi version treats house arrest or electronic monitoring as not qualifying when it is without physical custody [1]. The Polymarket version lists house arrest and electronic monitoring as qualifying [2]. The narrower Polymarket Netanyahu event requires physical custody together with criminal processing or a criminal charging instrument, and it excludes protective custody, medical holds, and brief detention [3]. Anyone reading a price should first check which rule set applies, the listed deadline, and whether the contract is part of a larger event with other named individuals.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an arrest warrant alone make a contract resolve Yes?
No. The rules state that an arrest warrant that is issued but not executed does not satisfy the payout criterion [1][2]. The Polymarket Netanyahu event also says that the issuance of an arrest warrant does not qualify without physical custody [3].
Does being questioned or briefly detained count as an arrest?
Generally no. The rules exclude being questioned or interviewed without arrest and being briefly detained but not arrested [1][2]. The narrower Polymarket event also excludes brief detention, questioning, and searches on their own [3].
Does release on bail cancel a Yes outcome?
The Polymarket Netanyahu rules say that release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal, acquittal, pardon, or other post-arrest developments do not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred [3].
Do all the arrest contracts use the same rules?
No. The Kalshi, Polymarket multi-person event, and Polymarket Netanyahu event each have different wording and deadlines [1][2][3]. The Kalshi rules count house arrest only when it involves physical custody, while the Polymarket multi-person event lists house arrest and electronic monitoring as qualifying [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
