GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July

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ISM Manufacturing PMI in July

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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max 0.0%

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8 markets tracked

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)	Kalshi	94%
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)	Kalshi	79%
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)	Kalshi	54%
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)	Kalshi	28%
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)	Kalshi	13%
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 56)	Kalshi	3%
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 58)	Kalshi	1%
ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 57)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In Jul 2026 If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM, one decimal place, is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ISM Manufacturing PMI in July
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jul 2026

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM, one decimal place, is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 58, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 58)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 57)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 56)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July

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KALSHI

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIOther

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 51, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIOther

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 52, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHIOther

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 53, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIOther

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 54, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIOther

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for July 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 55, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

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Events (1)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July

Markets (8)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)

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ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 51)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 52)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 53)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 54)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)

ISM Manufacturing PMI in July 2026? (At least 55)

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