Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This is a short-window "Up or Down" contract on ZCash. According to the saved rules, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The title window is "8:05PM-8:10PM ET" [1]. The resolution source is the ZEC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ZEC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].

Two wording points matter for comparison. First, the contract compares a TWAP over the window with the price at the window's start, not the closing spot price. Second, a tie counts as "Up" under the "greater than or equal to" language [1]. Other platforms or contracts with similar titles may use different sources or thresholds, so their prices should not be read as the same question.

The listed end time is "2026-10-27T00:10:00.000Z" [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers should convert the window themselves before comparing it with other markets.

Reading the snapshot

The saved record was observed at 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T04:04:51.499Z [1]. The provider status in that record was "active" [1]. The observed prices were 0.5 for "Up" and 0.5 for "Down" [1]. This is a single snapshot taken about an hour before retrieval, so it does not describe conditions at the time you read this.

These prices are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They do not show trading depth, the number of participants, or the price at which an order would fill. The sample contains one market from one event, and the coverage record marks it as complete, with no partial sampling [1]. The sample warning states that the saved markets are all included, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this event [1]. Because there is only one market here, no other outcome can be compared with it.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why the prices were at 0.5 at observation, and it contains no recent news, trader counts, or price history. It also does not establish how the TWAP will move before the listed end time. The record gives no resolution outcome, so the contract's actual result is not known from this evidence.

References

1. Polymarket: ZCash Up or Down - October 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.