This PredictPedia contract is a market tied to the 99th Academy Awards and its Best Actress award. The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor artistic and technical achievement in film [3]. The contract's event page describes the 2027 cycle, with nominations scheduled to be announced on January 21 and the ceremony scheduled for March 14, 2027 [1]. These are scheduled dates from the contract's description, and the supplied evidence does not confirm that either event has taken place. Each market in this event asks whether a specific actress will win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards. The event's rules say the market resolves according to the listed actress who wins that award [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Academy and AMPAS, including its website and the live broadcast of the ceremony. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. The contract includes three rules that determine how it resolves. First, if an actress is not officially nominated for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, her corresponding market resolves to No [1]. Second, if there is a tie for the winner, the market resolves in favor of the nominated actress whose last name comes first alphabetically [1]. Third, if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The market records in this event show a yes and no price for each actress. Those prices are snapshots taken at a single observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. Trading volume is also not a measure of liquidity or of how many people traded. The sample is partial. The event has 18 markets, and 12 are included in the saved record, selected by highest finite Yes price and then by volume [1]. Because of this selection rule, the included rows cannot be treated as the full field of nominees or as a ranking across other events or providers. Among the included markets, the Julianne Moore contract has the highest Yes price in the snapshot, at 0.71, and the Inde Navarrette contract is next at 0.155 [1]. Some included markets also list an earlier end date of 2027-03-14T23:59:00.000Z than the event's listed end time [1].

Historical Context

The supplied sources give limited history for the Best Actress category itself. The Academy Awards are described as an annual award series presented by AMPAS since the awards were established [3]. A separate list of submissions for the Best International Feature Film category notes that the category was previously called Best Foreign Language Film and was renamed in April 2019 [2]. That history concerns a different category and does not describe the Best Actress award.

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