North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
K 2.1K contracts
1
3
North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
K 2.1K contracts
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Smith, 1+ pts at 33%.
Kalshi
- Smith, 1+ pts33%
- Smith, 3+ pts27.5%
- Smith, 6+ pts18%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
North Carolina's 3rd District If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in North Carolina's 3rd District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T21:00:06.847Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event asks whether Republicans win North Carolina's 3rd District U.S. House race in the 2026 election by at least a set number of percentage points [1]. The margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the percentage for the candidate or party finishing immediately behind, or minus the first-place finisher if Republicans lose. A loss produces a negative margin, and a tie produces zero [1]. The rules state that "No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin," so a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range, not the 5-6% range [1].
Each listed contract is a separate "at least X percentage points" threshold. Read together, they describe overlapping events, not a set of mutually exclusive ranges.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-28T21:00:06.847Z, and the excerpt was retrieved at 21:53:22.632Z [1]. These are saved values from that observation, not live quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The snapshot shows about 0.56 for at least 1 point, 0.455 for at least 3 points, 0.29 for at least 6 points, 0.18 for at least 9 points, and 0.0875 for at least 12 points. Higher thresholds show Yes prices below 0.05 [1].
Do not add these Yes prices together or average them. They are not exclusive outcomes, so they do not form a full distribution. The sample covers all nine saved markets for this event, and the provider lists the event as active [1]. The sample warning also notes that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1].
Volume is not included in this interpretation. Volume does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The provider lists every market's end date as 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The same excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied" and that the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1]. The listed date is therefore a contract field, not an announced event date, and the evidence does not establish when results will be certified or when the market will actually close.
The evidence also does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no other sources on the race. Because only one provider source is supplied, these prices cannot be compared with other platforms. Different contracts on different platforms may use different wording, so a price gap alone is not evidence of an opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T21:00:06.847Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia topic covers a Kalshi contract on the margin of victory for Republicans in North Carolina's 3rd District in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election [1]. The contract does not ask who wins. It asks how large the Republican margin is, measured in percentage points. Under the provider's rules, a market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins by at least the stated number of percentage points [1]. The margin is calculated as the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind the Republicans if they win. If the Republicans lose, the margin is calculated against the candidate or party that finishes first and is recorded as a negative number [1]. The rules state that a tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. The saved event includes nine separate markets, each with a different threshold. The thresholds in the saved sample run from 1 to 24 percentage points in steps of 3 for the first several, with later steps at 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, and 24 [1]. Each market is a separate Yes or No contract on whether the margin reaches its threshold. Because the thresholds are different contracts, a higher threshold should not be read as a separate event from a lower one, and their prices are not a single ranked list of outcomes. The provider's rules set specific boundary conditions. Each margin range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied to the calculated margin [1]. The rules give an example in which a margin of exactly 6 percentage points falls in the 6 to 7 range, while 5.99999 falls in the 5 to 6 range [1]. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the rules set the margin at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast for raw vote margins [1].
Historical Context
The North Carolina House elections are scheduled to elect the state's 14 U.S. representatives, one from each congressional district, on November 3, 2026 [3]. The primary elections took place on March 3, 2026, and races where no candidate received over 30 percent in a primary were to go to runoff elections on May 12 [3]. The Wikipedia article on the state's U.S. Senate race likewise describes the election as one to be held on November 3, 2026 [2]. These sources describe the election schedule. They do not report results for the 3rd District, and the supplied evidence contains no vote totals for that race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness and the size of a Republican win in one district, rather than the overall outcome of the House election [1]. Because the rules define the margin in percentage points against the runner-up, the result depends on the vote shares of the top two finishers, not on total turnout [1]. The provider's rules also say the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. A reader should check that rule when interpreting how a contract is settled, since the supplied evidence does not give a listed end time for the event [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a market in this event to resolve to Yes?
A market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 3rd District race by at least the threshold in its title, measured in percentage points [1]. The margin is taken against the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind the Republicans [1].
How is the margin calculated if Republicans lose?
If the Republican Party loses, the margin is negative and is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first [1].
Does the event close before the scheduled election date?
The provider's rules state that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The rules do not give a listed end time in the supplied evidence [1].
What happens in an uncontested race?
For an uncontested race in which the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast for raw vote margins [1].
Does the 2027 date in the market data mean an election is scheduled for that date?
No. The market data lists an end date of November 3, 2027, but the provider's rules state that no listed end time was supplied [1]. The House election is described as taking place on November 3, 2026 [3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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