Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This event is archived. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This saved event covers an eSoccer match titled "Montpellier (Millie) vs Olympique de Marseille (Annie)," described in the rules as part of the Valkyrie Cup 2026 Week #43 [1]. The rules refer to a match "originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026 at 7:56 PM EDT" [1]. The market "is based on the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. This does not include extra time or penalties" [1]. The three markets share this resolution basis but ask different questions: whether Montpellier wins, whether the game ends in a tie, or whether Marseille wins [1].

The rules also set terms for cancellation and postponement. If the match "is cancelled or postponed more than 2 weeks from its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to $0.33" [1]. If it is postponed but begins within 2 weeks, the market "will remain open and resolve based on the official final result" [1].

The markets list an end date of 2026-11-01T23:56:00.000Z, while the provider's listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. The end date is a data field, not an announced resolution date.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:10:58.146Z. It is archived, so it does not show current prices. At observation, all three markets were listed as active [1]. The Yes prices were 0.645 for Montpellier, 0.400 for a tie, and 0.385 for Marseille [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The three Yes prices sum to 1.43, so they do not form a complete probability distribution, and the gap should not be treated as an arbitrage signal.

The sample includes all three saved markets for this one provider event, and partialSample is false [1]. The source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only Kalshi appears here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not include a match result, a resolution status, or any explanation for the price levels. It also does not include trader counts or volume, so liquidity cannot be assessed. The snapshot was taken after the scheduled start time in the rules, but the supplied evidence does not show whether the match was played, postponed, or cancelled. Readers should check the provider's current event page for status before drawing conclusions.

References

1. Kalshi: eSoccer: Montpellier (Millie) vs Olympique de Marseille (Annie). Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.