Arkansas's 2nd District margin of victory
K 14.94 contracts
1
3
Arkansas's 2nd District margin of victory
K 14.94 contracts
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Jones, 1+ pts at 14.5%.
Kalshi
- Jones, 1+ pts14.5%
- Jones, 3+ pts8.5%
- Jones, 6+ pts4.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 14.94 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Arkansas's 2nd District If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 2nd District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event asks whether Republicans will win Arkansas's 2nd District in the 2026 U.S. House election by a set margin. Each market uses the same rule: the margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate who finishes immediately behind, and the market resolves to Yes if the margin is "by X percentage points or more" [1]. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied, so a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range [1]. A tie yields a margin of 0, and an uncontested Republican race is scored as 100 percentage points or the total raw votes [1].
The contracts differ mainly by threshold. The supplied markets ask about 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, and 24 percentage points [1]. The source says the event "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1]. The supplied listed end date for each market is 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z, but the source states the event's listed end time was not supplied, so that field should be read as the contract's stored close time rather than an announced event date [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-30T03:00:06Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-30T05:08:35Z [1]. These are snapshot values from the observation time, not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
Within this event, the quoted Yes prices fall as the threshold rises: 0.775 at 1 point, 0.69 at 3 points, 0.51 at 6 points, 0.335 at 9 points, 0.215 at 12 points, 0.1105 at 15 points, 0.0485 at 18 points, 0.0335 at 21 points, and 0.027 at 24 points [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the prices should not be averaged or treated as a single distribution. Their differences do not by themselves imply an arbitrage opportunity.
The supplied coverage reports 9 of 9 markets included with no partial sample [1]. The sample warning also states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Volume is not supplied here, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no news, results, or certification status. Whether the election has been certified, or whether the market has closed early, is not established by these records. The listed end date is not confirmation of when results will be known. Readers should check the current provider page before relying on any figure, since this snapshot describes only the observation time shown above [1].
References
- Kalshi: Arkansas's 2nd District margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi market on the margin of victory for Republicans in Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election [1]. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the race by at least a stated number of percentage points [1]. The margin is calculated by subtracting the vote percentage of the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party from the Republican vote percentage [1]. If Republicans lose, the margin is negative and is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first [1]. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. The rules also specify how close results are treated. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin, so a margin just below a threshold stays below it [1]. If the Republican Party runs under multiple labels or appears more than once on the ballot, votes attributable to the same underlying party are summed [1]. For uncontested races where Republicans are the only candidate, the rules set the margin at 100 percentage points, or use the total number of votes cast for raw-vote markets [1]. The saved event includes nine markets, each asking whether the margin will be at least a specific number of percentage points, with thresholds running from 1 to 24 points [1]. Each market has a Yes and a No outcome, and the prices shown in the application are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The market data lists an end date of November 3, 2027 [1]. That date is a listed field in the saved data rather than an announced event date. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
Historical Context
Wikipedia pages in the supplied evidence describe earlier Arkansas elections, not the 2026 race in the 2nd District. One states that the 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, alongside the election of the Governor of Arkansas and other federal and state contests [2]. Another states that the 2024 U.S. House elections in Arkansas were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the state's four representatives, one for each congressional district, with a primary on March 5, 2024 [3]. These pages provide general background on how Arkansas holds its federal elections, but they do not report on the 2026 contest or on the outcome of this market.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of a Republican win in one House district, not simply whether Republicans win. Because each market uses a different threshold, the set of prices describes how the contract is structured across the range of possible margins [1]. Traders and readers can use the thresholds to see how the rules treat close races, ties, and uncontested contests [1]. The rules also define when the contract ends early, which makes the certification of official results an important event for how the market closes [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as the margin of victory in this market?
The margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind Republicans if they win. If Republicans lose, the margin is negative and is measured against the party or candidate that finishes first [1].
How are close margins handled?
No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. The rules give an example in which a margin of 5.99999 percent resolves within the 5 to 6 percent range, while a margin of exactly 6 percent resolves within the 6 to 7 percent range [1].
What happens if Republicans are the only candidate?
For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast for raw-vote markets [1].
Can the market close before its listed end date?
Yes. The rules state that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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