Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the US government lift Microsoft's PERM suspension?

Total Volume

$18.00

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Will the US government lift Microsoft's PERM suspension?

Vol

$18.00

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $18.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the Department of Labor or the White House announce a decision to lift, in whole or in part, the October 8, 2026 suspension of Microsoft's permanent labor certification (PERM) processing, or to resume accepting or processing any of Microsoft's new or pending PERM applications before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Department of Labor or the White House announce a decision to lift, in whole or in part, the October 8, 2026 suspension of Microsoft's permanent labor certification (PERM) processing, or to resume accepting or processing any of Microsoft's new or pending PERM applications before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will the Department of Labor or the White House announce a decision to lift, in whole or in part, the October 8, 2026 suspension of Microsoft's permanent labor certification (PERM) processing, or to resume accepting or processing any of Microsoft's new or pending PERM applications before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$18.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If the Department of Labor or the White House announces a decision to lift, in whole or in part, the October 8, 2026 suspension of Microsoft's permanent labor certification, PERM, processing, or to resume accepting or processing any of Microsoft's new or pending PERM applications before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X lift or resumption that applies only to companies other than Microsoft, or a statement that the suspension is under review, does NOT qualify. X court

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the US government lift Microsoft's PERM suspension?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If the Department of Labor or the White House announces a decision to lift, in whole or in part, the October 8, 2026 suspension of Microsoft's permanent labor certification, PERM, processing, or to resume accepting or processing any of Microsoft's new or pending PERM applications before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X lift or resumption that applies only to companies other than Microsoft, or a statement that the suspension is under review, does NOT qualify. X court 

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Department of Labor or the White House announce a decision to lift, in whole or in part, the October 8, 2026 suspension of Microsoft's permanent labor certification (PERM) processing, or to resume accepting or processing any of Microsoft's new or pending PERM applications before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Department of Labor or the White House announce a decision to lift, in whole or in part, the October 8, 2026 suspension of Microsoft's permanent labor certification (PERM) processing, or to resume accepting or processing any of Microsoft's new or pending PERM applications before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $18
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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