KALSHIScience and Technology
When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
Product feature rollout
If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. The function must be live and processing user interactions, not explicitly labeled as "beta," "test," "experimental," "preview," or "early access" or similar, and officially acknowledged by the company through announcements, documentation, or help pages. Implementation includes direct integration into the product's interface, automatic application to user accounts, user-initiated activation through official controls, API implementation, or policy changes that operationally enforce the function. Announcements without deployment, employee-only testing, technical documentation without implementation, and third-party additions without authorization do not qualify. The implementation must occur in the United States unless otherwise specified. If it meets these conditions, it counts from the first date it is live for users outside the company, including in a gradual rollout or a waitlist, invitation-only, or paid-tier release. X general-purpose personal AI agent acts for an individual user on that user's own goals, is not limited to a single category of task or app, such as only code, only documents, or only shopping, and, 1, retains user-specific information, such as preferences, relationships, goals, or ongoing activities, across separate interactions, and, 2, as a built-in capability, on its own initiative and outside any conversation or task the user has started, begins new multi-step actions across third-party apps, websites, or services to advance the user's ongoing goals, based on what it has retained. The agent must itself take at least one such action before asking the user anything, and may then pause for approval before a step such as sending a message or making a purchase. An action means changing something in a third-party app, website, or service on the user's behalf, such as sending, posting, booking, purchasing, submitting a form, or creating, editing, or deleting an item; reading, searching, or summarizing does not count. An agent focused on work qualifies if it acts across email, calendar, messaging, and the web for an individual user. The following do not qualify: carrying out a task the user started, however long-running; running tasks on a user-defined schedule, event trigger, or monitor, or under a standing instruction that tells the agent what to do or which app, source, or workflow to watch; a briefing or notification on its own; a proposed task or suggestion that does nothing until the user accepts it; an offer made in reply to the user's message; memory alone; an agent configured by an organization to run shared team workflows; and a developer platform, SDK, or API for building agents, unless the company itself offers through it an agent that meets, 1, and, 2, for end users. X goal or preference the user has shared, from which the agent itself decides what new task to start, is not a standing instruction, and neither is turning the capability on, connecting apps, or granting permissions. This market will close and expire early if the function is implemented.
POLYMARKETTech
Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms.
Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify.
A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
