Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET" and is listed on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The wording matters for comparison. A contract on a different data feed, a spot exchange price, or a different time window would measure something else, even if its title mentions Bitcoin. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:15:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:10:07.635Z [1]. The saved outcomes were "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not live quotes, not executable prices, and not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record, so the snapshot shows a near-even split between the two outcomes at that moment.
The sample covers one saved market for this provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that event, with no partial sample [1]. The saved event contains only this contract, so no other outcomes from this event can be compared. Volume is not included in the record, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved.
Because this is a single contract, there is no cross-platform comparison to make. Prices on other platforms or for differently worded contracts should not be treated as equivalent without checking their rules and close times.
What remains uncertain
The record does not show the price at the start of the time range, the TWAP value at any point, or the eventual outcome, so the resolution cannot be determined from this evidence. The record also does not explain why the prices stand where they do. The snapshot is also a point in time: it was observed on 2026-10-19 and does not describe prices after the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, Up and Down. The provider's rules state that it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is named as information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. This means the outcome depends on the specific feed named in the rules, so a different exchange's displayed Bitcoin price, or a different averaging method, would not determine the result under these terms. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:15:00.000Z [1]. The observation recorded for this entry is dated 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the provider status recorded at that observation is active [1]. That status describes the source at the time it was observed. The contract's closing time, the observation time, the time the source was retrieved, and the eventual resolution are separate points, and the source excerpt does not report a final resolution.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price across a defined five-minute window as measured by a specific Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because the outcome compares the average price over the window with the price at its start, a move can be recorded as Up even if the price at the window's end is below the starting level, provided the average stays at or above the starting price. The rule is written around the averaged data stream and not the closing spot price [1]. For readers, the practical point is that the contract's wording defines what counts as the outcome. Anyone interpreting the market should read the resolution source and the TWAP definition in the provider rules rather than assuming it tracks general Bitcoin price news or a particular exchange [1]. The provider also states that the market is about the Chainlink feed and not other sources [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
According to the provider rules, the contract resolves to Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range, and to Down otherwise [1].
Which price source is used to resolve the market?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that other sources and spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time in the provider data is 2026-10-20T08:15:00.000Z [1]. The entry's observation was recorded at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, when the provider status was active [1]. The excerpt does not report a final resolution.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.