Brent Crude Oil Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 1.56 contracts
1
1
Brent Crude Oil Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 1.56 contracts
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Target Price: $108.59 at 62%.
Kalshi
- Target Price: $108.5962%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.56 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 22 - 8:00PM EDT to 8:15PM EDT If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Brent Crude Oil on Oct 22, 2026 at 8:15 PM EDT is at least the close price of the 1-minute Pyth BRENT candlestick at 8:00 PM EDT on October 22, 2026 USD/|| Unit ||, then the market resolves to Yes. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract, titled "Brent Crude Oil price up in next 15 mins?", is listed on Kalshi [1]. Its rule states that if "the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Brent Crude Oil on Oct 22, 2026 at 8:15 PM EDT is at least the close price of the 1-minute Pyth BRENT candlestick at 8:00 PM EDT," the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is listed for Oct 22 from 8:00PM EDT to 8:15PM EDT [1]. The rules also say the settlement value is "rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places," and that if data is unavailable, "the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market" [1].
The saved market record gives an endDate of 2026-10-30T00:15:00.000Z, but the event excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The measured interval is defined by the rule text, so readers should confirm the platform's own listing before relying on either date.
Reading the snapshot
The observation was recorded at 2026-10-23T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-23T02:40:37Z [1]. In that saved record, the Yes outcome was priced at 0.62 and the No outcome at 0.38 [1]. These figures describe that snapshot only. They are not executable quotes and not verified probabilities.
The sample contains one market from one event, and it is not flagged as partial [1]. With a single outcome pair, there is no other contract in the sample to compare against, so no ranking or cross-platform reading is possible.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why the price stood at 0.62 at the time of observation. It also does not show current prices, trading depth, or the number of participants. The saved status is "active," but this reflects the provider record, and the evidence does not confirm whether the contract is trading now [1]. The settlement result is not included in the evidence.
References
- Kalshi: Brent Crude Oil Up or Down - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCOverview
Brent Crude Oil Up or Down - 15 minutes is a short-horizon commodities contract listed on Kalshi [1]. It asks whether Brent crude's price at the end of a 15-minute window is at least as high as its price at the start. The contract rules name the window as 8:00 PM EDT to 8:15 PM EDT on October 22, 2026 [1]. The settlement comparison uses one-minute candlesticks. The rules compare the close of the one-minute Brent candlestick at 8:15 PM EDT with the close of the one-minute Pyth BRENT candlestick at 8:00 PM EDT. If the first is at least the second, the market resolves to Yes. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places [1]. The rules also state that a candlestick's close is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval, so the candle timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM [1]. If the designated source publishes no data for the specified time, the most recently available published data is used instead [1]. The contract refers to Brent, not West Texas Intermediate. Wikipedia describes WTI as a grade of crude oil whose spot, futures, and assessed prices are used as a benchmark in oil pricing, with the NYMEX WTI futures contract the usual colloquial reference [2]. Traders reading a Brent contract therefore need to track Brent's own price, and WTI data does not settle this market [1][2].
Historical Context
Wikipedia's article on the economic impact of the 2026 Iran war states that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is part of a conflict that the International Energy Agency has characterized as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" [3]. The same article compares the episode with earlier oil shocks. It reports that the 1990 to 1991 Gulf War saw oil prices decline within about nine months of the initial spike, and that the Congressional Research Service found prices returned to pre-crisis levels within a few months after the 2003 Iraq War began [3]. It also notes that Brent rose to nearly $130 a barrel after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine before falling back over the following months [3]. These are historical comparisons drawn from a Wikipedia article. They describe how earlier shocks unfolded over months and do not explain any price movement within a 15-minute window, and they do not describe current market conditions [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Brent's price over one fixed 15-minute window, not its level. Its resolution depends on the price series named in the rules, the candlestick timing convention, and two-decimal rounding [1]. Because it resolves on a short window, small differences in which candlestick is used can determine the outcome, which is why the rules specify the exact timestamps [1]. The contract is a separate instrument from WTI futures, and the rules do not link it to any WTI price series [1][2]. Its listed status and any later settlement result should be checked directly with the provider, since the supplied rules do not confirm how the window was settled.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for this market to resolve Yes?
The close of the one-minute Brent candlestick at 8:15 PM EDT on October 22, 2026 must be at least the close of the one-minute Pyth BRENT candlestick at 8:00 PM EDT on the same date, with both values rounded to two decimal places [1].
Why does the candlestick timing matter?
The rules say a candlestick's close is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval, so the timestamp label does not mark the closing price directly [1]. The rules give the 4:59 PM example to show that the 4:59 PM candle closes at 5:00:00 PM [1].
Is this contract based on WTI crude?
No. The contract is titled and defined around Brent Crude Oil [1]. Wikipedia describes WTI as a separate grade and benchmark used in oil pricing [2].
Had the 15-minute window closed when the saved record was retrieved?
The window ends at 8:15 PM EDT on October 22, 2026, which is 00:15 UTC on October 23, 2026 [1]. The saved observation time was 00:00 UTC on October 23, 2026, which is before that end time. The supplied record does not show the resolution outcome.
What happens if the source does not publish data for a required time?
The rules state that the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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