Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each market in this snapshot asks whether C.J. Stroud will record at least a listed number of passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season [1]. The rules say the market resolves "Yes" if the number of passing yards "equals or exceeds the listed number," and "No" otherwise [1].

Several rule details matter for comparison. If Stroud does not play in the regular season "for any reason," the market resolves "No" [1]. If the season is shortened, truncated, or ends early, the outcome is determined "using available official data for completed games" [1]. If the season is cancelled, is postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the yardage cannot be determined within that timeframe, the market resolves "50-50" [1]. The stated resolution source is "official information from the NFL," though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a contract closing time, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and the retrieval time is 2026-10-16T05:03:02Z. These prices describe that observation only. They are not live quotes and are not verified probabilities.

The sample includes five separate contracts, all from one event, with thresholds of 3,099.5, 3,349.5, 3,599.5, 3,849.5, and 4,099.5 yards. Their listed Yes prices are 0.9245, 0.715, 0.615, 0.46, and 0.335 [1]. Each contract is a distinct yes-or-no question, so these figures should not be averaged or merged into a single estimate. The Yes price falls as the threshold rises, which describes the snapshot only and does not explain why.

Within each contract, the Yes and No prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot. Price differences between contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity, because the thresholds, rules, and closing times define what is being compared.

What remains uncertain

The coverage record reports that all five markets were included, with no partial sample [1]. The provider's sample warning, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot does not include volume data, trader counts, or executable depth, so it says nothing about how easily these prices could be traded. The evidence also does not explain any movement in these prices, and it does not provide information on Stroud's current status or recent news.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: C.J. Stroud 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.