AZ-09 House Election Winner
PM $38.7K
1
2
AZ-09 House Election Winner
PM $38.7K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Paul Gosar (R) at 96%.
Polymarket
- Paul Gosar (R)96%
- Dani Sterbinsky (D)3.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $38.7K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T21:00:06.013Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket event asks which party will win the AZ-09 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules say the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat" [1]. A candidate's party is set by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time the House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. Independents are assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
Resolution depends on "a consensus of credible reporting." If that is ambiguous, the market resolves on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is later than the November 3, 2026 election date stated in the rules [1]. The listed end time and the election date are different fields, and this comparison does not establish when the seat will be called.
Reading the snapshot
The data were observed at 2026-10-24T21:00:06.013Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T23:14:32.675Z [1]. These prices describe that observation, not live trading on the day you read this.
The event contains two separate markets. The Republican Party market shows a Yes price of 0.96 and a No price of 0.04. The Democratic Party market shows a Yes price of 0.039 and a No price of 0.961 [1]. Both are listed as active. Because the two markets are different contracts, their prices should be read separately. The prices are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Volume is not included in the excerpt, so this snapshot does not describe liquidity.
Coverage reports two of two saved markets included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The sample warning states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome in the real-world race [1]. Third-party or other candidates are not shown here, so the snapshot cannot be used to infer their prices.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, how many traders hold each position, or whether any news affected them. It also does not state the current result, any later price, or whether the seat has been called. Interpret these figures only as the observed values at the stated time.
References
- Polymarket: AZ-09 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T21:00:06.013Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The AZ-09 House Election Winner contract is a Polymarket event about the 2026 midterm race for the AZ-09 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives [1]. Rather than asking which named candidate will win, it asks which party will hold the seat. The rules state that the market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The rules also explain how a party is assigned. A candidate's party is based on the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate with no ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The market states that it will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that reporting is ambiguous, it resolves based solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The rules point to the midterm elections taking place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The saved event lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That field is a contract setting and does not by itself describe when results will be called. The saved event contains two contracts, one asking whether the Republican Party will win the seat and one asking whether the Democratic Party will win it [1]. Because both belong to the same event and rules, they describe the same underlying outcome from opposite sides.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will hold the AZ-09 House seat after the 2026 midterm elections, as defined by its resolution rules [1]. Its value comes from tying that party outcome to a specific process: the affiliation test applied when races are called, the consensus-of-reporting standard, and the FEC official results as a fallback when reporting is ambiguous [1]. Those rules determine how the contract settles, so the result depends on the rules and not on the trading price at any given moment [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines which party a winning candidate counts for?
The rules use a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is counted under the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time [1].
How is the outcome decided if reporting is unclear?
The market resolves by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Does this contract cover other House races?
The saved event covers only the AZ-09 seat [1]. Other pages in the research concern different contests, such as the 2026 House elections in Nebraska, which are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3], and the 2028 presidential election [2]. Those pages do not determine the outcome of this contract.
Does the trading price show the likely outcome?
A price in this contract is a saved snapshot of market activity. It is not a verified probability and not an executable quote. The contract settles under its written rules rather than under any price at a particular moment [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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