TX-16 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $25.4K
1
10
TX-16 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $25.4K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 25-30% at 26.9%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 25-30%26.9%
- Democrat 35-40%23.8%
- Democrat 30-35%22.4%
- Democrat 40-45%13.7%
- Democrat 45%+3.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $25.4K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 TX-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied source describes Polymarket contracts on the margin of victory in the 2026 TX-16 House election [1]. The margin is "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Resolution depends on the official count, which the market "will resolve based on... once the count has been made official" [1]. A reported value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves "to the higher margin bracket" [1].
The rules also cover uncertain timing. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount ends [1]. The excerpt says the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1], while the listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The listed end time is a provider field and does not establish when results will be certified.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T06:32:38.228Z [1]. They describe that moment only and may have changed since. All 10 saved markets for this event are included, but the source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
Among the Yes prices in the sample, the highest is 0.2465 for a Democratic win by 25%-30%, followed by 0.242 for 35%-40% and 0.2295 for 30%-35% [1]. The lowest is 0.001 for 0%-5% [1]. The Republican win contract shows Yes at 0.0035 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each bracket is a separate contract, and the evidence does not explain how the brackets relate to one another, so the prices should not be added or averaged into a single estimate.
What remains uncertain
The evidence comes from one provider and one event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. It does not include trading volume, liquidity, or trader counts. The contract states that candidates "may be named... for the convenience of traders" and that a replacement nominee would be used if a candidate is replaced before election day [1]. Whether any such change has occurred is not in the evidence. Finally, the snapshot does not show what the prices will be at the listed end time.
References
- Polymarket: TX-16 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is tied to the 2026 election for Texas's 16th congressional district in the U.S. House. It does not ask whether a particular party wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The provider states that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A separate Wikipedia article on Texas's 2026 House elections says that the elections will coincide with other House elections, Senate elections, and various state and local elections, and that the state's thirty-eight congressional districts each elect one representative [2]. That article also reports that the primaries took place on March 3, 2026, and that runoffs took place on May 26 in races where no candidate exceeded 50 percent in the primary [2]. Those primary and runoff dates are described as past events in that source, but the article's own statement about the general election is written in the future tense, so the November date should be read as an expected date rather than a confirmed result. The contract's listed end time is 4:59 a.m. UTC on November 4, 2026 [1]. That time is when the market is set to close for trading, not when the race is decided. The contract resolves based on the official vote count once it has been certified, so resolution can occur well after the election night count. If a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. The provider also allows an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time, the contract resolves to "Other" [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background is general and concerns other House elections. A Wikipedia article on the 2018 House elections states that they were held on November 6, 2018, were midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term, and chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states for the 116th Congress [3]. That article does not discuss Texas's 16th district or the 2026 race, so it provides only a general backdrop for midterm House elections.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the margin of victory in one specific race rather than the winner alone. Its price ladder is divided into bracket-style Democratic margin ranges, such as 25 to 30 percent or 45 percent or more, plus a Republican-win contract [1]. Because the margin is measured between the top two candidates, the contract depends on how the vote is distributed among all valid ballots, not only on who finishes first. The rules also include several details that affect how the contract is read. Only the Democratic and Republican Party nominees count as the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count for either party [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract is updated and resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. If a reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties are handled through a separate tiebreaking rule based on ballot-listed last names, and a tie involving only unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Which candidates are used for the Democrat and Republican options?
The options refer to candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1].
What happens if a nominee is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
What happens if the result sits exactly between two brackets?
The contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
When is the official result used for resolution?
The market resolves based on the official vote count after it has been certified. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market remains open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a contract price show the chance that an outcome will happen?
No. A price shown here is a snapshot from the saved data. It is not an executable quote, and it should not be treated as a verified probability.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Tennessee's 8th District margin of victory
K 14.5K contractsFlorida's 12th District margin of victory
K 11.3K contractsFlorida's 26th District margin of victory
K 5.3K contractsTennessee's 6th District margin of victory
K 1.1K contractsFlorida's 18th District margin of victory
K 1.2K contractsFlorida's 25th District margin of victory
K 4.3K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
