Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET" on Polymarket [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules specify that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price quoted elsewhere should note that a different source or a spot price could move differently from this TWAP measure.
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:25:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time as listed by the provider. It is not evidence of when the market has resolved, and the supplied evidence does not show a resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T15:04:01.400Z [1]. The prices below are therefore from the observation time, roughly three hours before this retrieval, and should not be read as live quotes.
The saved prices are:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495 [1]
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap of 0.01 between Up and Down is small, but it describes only this saved observation.
The sample covers one market. The coverage record shows 1 total market, 1 included market, and no partial sample [1]. The evidence does not show any other outcomes or contracts for this event, so no comparison across different events or platforms is supported here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include a current price, a resolution outcome, trading volume, or any explanation for the snapshot prices. It also does not establish how many people traded or hold positions, so the prices should not be read as broad agreement.
The provider states that all saved markets for the event are included but that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this contract is binary and the sample is complete for the saved event, the evidence still does not show whether other related contracts exist.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET." The contract is a five-minute price question about Bitcoin. Its rules state that it will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The price being measured is not taken from any exchange or spot market. The contract specifies that its resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream rather than any other source or spot market [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should keep that data source in mind, because the outcome depends on it and not on quotes elsewhere. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-28T07:25:00.000Z [1]. That is the time the contract's rules give for closing. It is not a report that the contract has already settled, and the outcome should be read from the resolution rules and the Chainlink data, not inferred from this entry.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Bitcoin's time-weighted average price over a specific five-minute window, from 3:20 AM to 3:25 AM ET on October 28, is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, the result reflects the average path of the price during those minutes compared with its starting level. The rules tie the measurement to Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, so the contract is a question about that specific data feed [1]. Traders and readers can use the rules to understand exactly what is being predicted, but a listed price is only a snapshot at one moment and is not a verified probability of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The contract states that it is about the price according to that Chainlink data stream, not other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title identifies the window as 3:20 AM to 3:25 AM ET on October 28, and the listed end time in the contract information is 2026-10-28T07:25:00.000Z [1].
Does a listed price show the likelihood of an Up outcome?
Not on its own. The contract's listed prices are snapshots from a provider at a particular time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the outcome is set only by the resolution rules and the Chainlink data [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.