GA-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $17.0K
1
8
GA-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $17.0K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 20-25% at 39%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 20-25%39%
- Democrat 25-30%20.4%
- Democrat 15-20%17%
- Democrat 10-15%10.5%
- Democrat 30%+8.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $17.0K
Reported volume · provider units
8
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0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The first round of the 2026 GA-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event resolves on the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 GA-02 House election. The source defines margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. The source says the first round "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Each bracket market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a stated range, and a separate market asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins [1]. A result that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:31:50.009Z [1]. The prices describe that observation only and are not executable quotes. The Yes prices for the margin brackets are 0.425 for 20%-25%, 0.32 for 15%-20%, 0.0745 for 10%-15%, 0.07 for 5%-10%, 0.069 for 25%-30%, 0.0485 for 0%-5%, and 0.048 for 30% or more [1]. The Republican win contract shows a Yes price of 0.0275 [1].
The seven margin bracket Yes prices add to about 1.055, so they should not be read as a normalized probability distribution or as verified probabilities. The sample covers all eight saved markets for this event, and the coverage record reports no partial sample [1]. The source also states that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. No omitted outcome should be assumed to have a lower price.
The evidence does not include volume, so it cannot speak to liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. The Republican contract and the margin brackets measure different things, so they should not be compared as if they answer the same question. Only one platform appears in this evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The election has not resolved within the evidence provided, and the snapshot may not reflect later prices.
References
- Polymarket: GA-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round). Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market covers the margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 GA-02 House election in Georgia. The provider describes the margin as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract states that the first round is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. That date comes from the contract text and is not described as a confirmed event date in the supplied material. The contract is organized as a set of margin brackets. Each bracket is a separate Yes or No contract about whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a given range, along with a separate contract about whether the Republican Party candidate wins. The saved event includes eight contracts in total, covering brackets from 0% to 5% through 30% or more for the Democratic side and a Republican win contract [1]. The saved event lists the contracts together, so the brackets should be read as parts of one grouped event rather than as independent forecasts. The rules define how each side is identified. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the Democrat and Republican options, and independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. The candidate names may appear in the contract for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as a party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The Georgia gubernatorial election is on the same date. The Wikipedia entry for that race states that the election will take place on November 3, 2026, and that incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp is ineligible to seek re-election to a third consecutive term [2]. That governor's race is a separate election and does not determine the GA-02 House margin.
Historical Context
The supplied background on House elections is general. The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 6, 2018, and were midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states [3]. This describes the 2018 cycle, not the 2026 GA-02 race, and it does not describe the GA-02 contest's history or results.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how much separates the top two finishers in one congressional district. Because the margin is based on percentages of valid votes, it focuses on the share of valid ballots rather than the raw number of votes [1]. Bracket boundaries matter: if a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The market resolves based on the official vote count once it has been made official, and the primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election. Credible reporting may also be used if there is an overwhelming consensus [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified [1]. The contract also sets a deadline. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1]. The listed end time for the contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is a listed contract closing time, not a record of when results are known.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count in this market?
No. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party, and the Democrat and Republican options are based on candidates nominated by those parties [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their party before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties handled?
If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to Other [1].
When does the market resolve to Other because of timing?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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