This PredictPedia contract asks whether Smith College, an all-women's college in Massachusetts, will change its policies to exclude the future admission of, or to unenroll current students who were born male and identify as transgender women, from its Northampton campus by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET [1]. The provider's background describes the college as currently undergoing a federal civil rights investigation for its policies relating to transgender women [1]. The contract resolves to "Yes" if such a policy change occurs within the stated timeframe, and to "No" otherwise [1]. The rules specify that an official announcement made within the market's timeframe qualifies for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the policy takes effect [1]. The listed end time of the event is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to the December 31, 2026 deadline in Eastern Time, and this date is a contract rule rather than an announced event date [1]. The resolution source is official statements from Smith College or its authorized representatives, with a consensus of credible reporting also allowed [1]. A narrow policy is still covered: an announcement that bars transgender women from enrolling at the Northampton campus counts even if it allows enrollment at satellite locations or remotely [1]. Conversely, the existence of, or potential for, individualized waivers from a general policy is not sufficient on its own to produce a "Yes" resolution [1]. The market's saved sample is a single contract within one provider event, so it reflects only this question and not a broader set of outcomes. Its prices are snapshots of the market at the time they were recorded and are not executable quotes.

Historical Context

Background sources describe the broader context in which this question arises. Wikipedia's entry on transgender people in sports states that the participation of transgender people in competitive sports, a traditionally sex-segregated institution, has become a subject of debate and controversy, particularly in relation to the inclusion of transgender women and girls in women's sports [2]. A separate Wikipedia entry on the United Kingdom notes that the early 21st century has seen a rise of anti-transgender sentiment there, with the movement leading to substantial rollbacks in the rights of transgender people in areas including access to sport [3]. These entries are general background and do not describe Smith College or the events covered by this contract, and they are not evidence of any current development at the college.

Frequently Asked Questions