Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY) | PredictPedia

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16 markets tracked

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	89%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	86%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	82%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	75%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	73%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	65%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	60%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in June 2026?	Kalshi	21%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jun 2026

If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X in the twelve months ending June 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 4.0% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal governm"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

75¢

Kalshi

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Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)

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Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?

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Events (1)

Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)

Markets (16)

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in June 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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