Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a five-minute window for Solana. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1]
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A contract on a different source, window, or averaging method would not measure the same thing, even if its title looks similar.
The title gives the window as 12:35AM to 12:40AM ET on October 28. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T04:40:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time and the listed end time uses UTC, so readers should check that the two refer to the same moment.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T07:46:19.361Z [1]. The prices below describe the market at the observation time. They do not describe current conditions when you read this.
The saved snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The 0.010 gap between them is small, and the evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do.
The sample covers one market in one saved event. Coverage is complete for that event, with partialSample set to false [1]. Because the contract is a binary Up or Down market, both outcomes are shown. The sample warning notes that providers may not list every possible real-world outcome, but this does not change the two-outcome comparison here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains no prices after the observation time, no final resolution, and no trade volume or liquidity data. The snapshot cannot tell you whether the market has moved since then.
The evidence also does not include trader counts, news, or any cause for the quoted prices. Other Solana contracts with different windows, sources, or close times should not be compared with this one as if they measured the same event.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Polymarket contract on the price of Solana (SOL) in US dollars. The contract is titled "Solana Up or Down - October 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET" and falls in the Crypto category [1]. It is a binary contract with two outcomes, Up and Down. The rules tie resolution to a time-weighted average price (TWAP) rather than a single spot price. The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison therefore depends on an average over the window, measured against the starting price, not on where the price sits at the final moment. The named resolution source is Chainlink, specifically its SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second window [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. Anyone reading a price on a different exchange or data feed should expect that it may not match the figure used for resolution. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T04:40:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 12:35 to 12:40 AM ET window [1]. That end time is the contract's closing time under the listed rules. It is not a separate announcement, and it does not by itself confirm when or how the outcome was settled.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's Chainlink-reported SOL/USD time-weighted average price over a five-minute window, from 12:35 to 12:40 AM ET, is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the outcome is set by an average over the window compared with its opening price, the contract asks about the direction of the averaged price path relative to the start, not a fixed target level. Its short duration and the use of a specific data stream mean that the rules themselves determine what counts as the result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
The Up outcome applies if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window, as measured by the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The rules specify the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second window and state that other sources or spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
When does this contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T04:40:00Z, which matches the end of the 12:35 to 12:40 AM ET window in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.