Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 30, 2026?
K 35.9K contracts
1
5
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 30, 2026?
K 35.9K contracts
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is James Talarico at 79.5%.
Kalshi
- James Talarico79.5%
- Amy Acton16.5%
- Abdul El-Sayed4.5%
- Gina Hinojosa1.5%
- Sherrod Brown0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 35.9K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
on Oct 30 at 10:00 AM ET If X is the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 30 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Fundraiser rankings are determined by the “Top fundraisers from this week” list displayed on ActBlue’s official directory page. The leftmost candidate is considered the top fundraiser. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with ActBlue. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on October 30, 2026, with each market resolving at 10:00 AM ET on that date. Under the stated rule, a candidate's market resolves to Yes if that candidate is top at that time. The rule states that "Fundraiser rankings are determined by the 'Top fundraisers from this week' list displayed on ActBlue's official directory page. The leftmost candidate is considered the top fundraiser." [1] The source also states that Kalshi is "not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with ActBlue." [1]
Each market is a separate Yes or No contract on one named candidate. The listed close time for these markets is January 28, 2027 at 14:00 UTC, which is later than the October 30 reference time in the rule. That date is a listed close time in the saved market data, not an announced event date. The event excerpt itself gives no separate listed end time. [1]
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 21:00:06 UTC on October 25, 2026 and retrieved at 22:47:27 UTC that day. It reflects prices at the observation time only and does not show current prices. [1]
At observation, the Yes prices were: James Talarico 0.79, Amy Acton 0.125, Abdul El-Sayed 0.045, Sherrod Brown 0.015, and Gina Hinojosa 0.015. These are snapshot quotes, not executable prices or verified probabilities. Volume and the number of traders are not included, so the prices cannot be read as liquidity or as a count of participants. The five Yes prices total 0.99 in this snapshot, but that total reflects only the five saved markets.
The saved sample includes all 5 markets from this one provider event, with no partial sampling flagged. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] Any candidate not in the sample has no price here, so no conclusion about its likelihood should be drawn.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It also does not establish how ActBlue's directory will look at 10:00 AM ET on October 30, how many people hold each view, or how the market will trade after the snapshot. Because only one provider and one event are supplied, these prices should not be compared with contracts on other platforms, even where wording looks similar. Differences in rules or close times could make such comparisons misleading. The snapshot is useful for reading the contract rule and the observed prices at one moment, not for judging current odds or forecasting results.
References
- Kalshi: Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 30, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract asks who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser at a specific moment: 10:00 AM ET on October 30, 2026. Under the provider's rules, if a named candidate is the top ActBlue fundraiser at that time, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The ranking is not based on an outside tally. It is determined by the "Top fundraisers from this week" list displayed on ActBlue's official directory page, and the provider states that "The leftmost candidate is considered the top fundraiser" [1]. The provider also states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with ActBlue [1]. The rules therefore tie resolution to the order of a single displayed list at a single check time. A candidate's standing earlier in the week, or on a different page, does not by itself determine the outcome under the stated rules [1]. Readers should check the rules for the exact wording of the ranking method before drawing conclusions from the market. The saved provider event contains five Yes/No markets, one for each named candidate: James Talarico, Amy Acton, Abdul El-Sayed, Sherrod Brown and Gina Hinojosa [1]. Each market asks whether that person will be the top ActBlue fundraiser at the stated check time [1]. Because these are separate binary contracts, the five markets are not a ranked list, and their prices should not be read as a ranking of candidates. The saved snapshot was observed at 21:00 UTC on October 25, 2026, and the source record was retrieved later that evening [1]. Those prices describe that observation only. At the observation, the Yes prices were 0.79 for Talarico, 0.125 for Acton, 0.045 for El-Sayed, and 0.015 each for Brown and Hinojosa [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved market data lists an end date of January 28, 2027 for each market [1]. That field is separate from the October 30, 2026 check time in the contract rules. The provider's listed end time was not supplied in the record, so the rules' check time is the reference point for what the contract measures [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single point-in-time result: which candidate is leftmost on ActBlue's "Top fundraisers from this week" list at 10:00 AM ET on October 30, 2026 [1]. It is a narrow measure of that displayed ranking, not a general measure of fundraising totals, and the rules do not describe how the list is compiled [1]. Because the provider states the rules and the check time, a reader can see exactly what would make each market resolve Yes [1]. The saved prices show how the market was priced at one observation, which is useful for reading the market's state at that time but not for predicting the result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event decides whether a market resolves Yes?
A market resolves to Yes if the named candidate is the top ActBlue fundraiser on October 30 at 10:00 AM ET [1]. Ranking is taken from the "Top fundraisers from this week" list on ActBlue's official directory page, and the leftmost candidate is considered the top fundraiser [1].
Is the market affiliated with ActBlue?
No. The provider states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with ActBlue [1].
Do the prices show the chance that a candidate will be top fundraiser?
Not as a verified probability. The saved prices are snapshots from 21:00 UTC on October 25, 2026, and they are not executable quotes [1]. The five markets are separate Yes/No contracts, so their prices should not be combined into a ranking [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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