Market snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

Reported volume

K 1.4K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

Vol

K 1.4K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

1.4K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

No eligible price comparison

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Price ChartContract price history

20 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% by Oct 23, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	55.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	53.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	48.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	44.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	41.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	39.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	37.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	36.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	34.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	32.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	30.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	29.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	27.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	25.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	24.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	23.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	21.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	19.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Oct 23, 2026?	Kalshi	18.5%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 1.4K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC

About This Event

By Oct 23, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 1.4K contracts
Coverage: 20 of 20 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.29; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.29% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.28; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 19.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.28% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.27; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 21.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 79.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.27% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.26; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 23.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 77.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.26% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 24.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.25% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.24; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 25.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 74.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.24% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.23; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 27.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 72.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.23% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.22; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 29.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 71.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.22% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.21; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 30.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 69.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.21% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.20; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 32.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 67.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.20% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.19; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 34.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 66.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.19% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.18; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 36.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 64.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.18% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.17; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 37.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 62.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.17% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.16; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 39.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 60.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.16% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 41.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 58.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.15% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.14; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 44.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 56.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.14% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.13; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 48.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 51.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.13% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.12; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.12% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.11; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 53.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 46.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.11% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% by Oct 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHW-26OCT23H-T5.10; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhw-26oct23h
Observed: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 25, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 1.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 55.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 44.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. 

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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