Bexar County Judge winner?
PM $21.5K · K 32.0K contracts
2
4
Bexar County Judge winner?
PM $21.5K · K 32.0K contracts
2
4
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $21.5K · K 32.0K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 16, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
In 2026 If X wins the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event "Bexar County Judge winner?" covers the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election [1]. Its rules state: "If X wins the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each candidate has a separate Yes contract, so the Nirenberg and Von Dohlen contracts are distinct questions, not two sides of one bet.
The rules also say the market "is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner," and that it "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. Closing therefore depends on the event and the determination process, not only on a fixed calendar time.
The excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1], but the saved market records show an endDate of 2027-11-03T14:00:00.000Z for both contracts. These entries conflict, and the evidence does not explain the discrepancy. Treat that timestamp as an unverified provider field, not as a confirmed close or resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:30:43Z [1]. It describes those moments only.
In this sample, the Yes price for Ron Nirenberg is 0.965 and the No price is 0.035. The Yes price for Patrick Von Dohlen is 0.02 and the No price is 0.98. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each contract should be read on its own terms. The two Yes prices should not be averaged or combined, and their difference does not indicate an arbitrage opportunity, because the contracts are separately listed under their own rules.
The sample covers two markets from one provider event. The coverage record reports 2 total markets, 2 included, and no partial sample [1]. The saved event is complete as provided, but the sample does not establish that every possible candidate is listed. Entries are ordered by Yes price, so their order is not a judgment about the field. Volume and trader activity are not interpreted here.
What remains uncertain
The excerpt gives no listed end time, and the endDate field conflicts with that statement. The snapshot does not show current prices, trading depth, or whether these quotes could be executed. The evidence also does not explain why prices sit at these levels. Final resolution depends on the rules and the eventual outcome, neither of which this evidence contains.
References
- Kalshi: Bexar County Judge winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks a Kalshi event titled "Bexar County Judge winner?" in the Elections category. The provider describes it as a market on the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election. Under the contract rules, a market for a candidate resolves to Yes if that candidate wins the general election [1]. Bexar County is a county in South Texas, and its county seat is San Antonio [2]. The 2026 general election for Texas offices is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3]. The contract includes a provision for early resolution. The provider's rules state that the market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider's status for the event is listed as active, and no listed end time was supplied with that status [1]. Readers should therefore not assume a fixed closing time from the event record alone. The contract is tied to the outcome of the general election rather than to a particular date. The saved event includes two named-candidate markets: one asking who will win the general election with Ron Nirenberg named, and one with Patrick Von Dohlen named [1]. Each market is a separate Yes or No contract. A price shown for one candidate's contract is not a forecast that is separately confirmed for the other, and the two contracts should be read on their own terms.
Historical Context
Bexar County is in South Texas, and its county seat is San Antonio [2]. Texas's 2026 election cycle included primary elections held on March 3 and runoffs held on May 26 for primary candidates who did not receive a majority of the vote [3]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3]. The sources supplied do not describe the history of the Bexar County Judge office or the candidates' prior records, so this section does not cover them.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific named candidate wins the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election. A Yes outcome on a candidate's market resolves if that candidate wins, as set out in the provider's rules [1]. Because the rules allow accelerated determination after a media consensus projects the winner, the contract may settle before the formal close, and the provider notes that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The general election date of November 3, 2026 comes from background reporting on Texas elections and describes when voting is scheduled, not when this contract will be determined [3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a candidate's Yes contract resolve?
The rules state that the market resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2026 Bexar County Judge general election [1].
Can the market settle before the general election is formally over?
The rules say the market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and that it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
When is the general election?
Texas elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026 [3]. This is the scheduled election date, not a statement about when this contract will be determined.
Does a price on this market show the chance that a candidate wins?
Prices are snapshots from the provider at a point in time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of a candidate winning [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
