Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the direction of Bitcoin's price over a five-minute window. The market states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the market says it concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers comparing this with other Bitcoin contracts should check whether they use the same data stream, window, and comparison rule, since small wording differences can change what is being predicted.
The listed end time is 2026-10-15T20:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so the listed UTC end time and the ET window in the title should be read together.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:38:25.570Z [1]. These are different moments. The prices describe the market at the observation time, not at the time you are reading this, and the record does not show later prices.
At observation, the saved outcomes were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved status was active [1].
The sample covers one saved market for this event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because this is the only saved market, there is no ranking or comparison with other contracts in this snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show trading volume, order book depth, or the number of traders behind these prices, so it cannot say how liquid the market was. It also does not explain why the prices were where they were. The record gives no information about the market after the observation time, so the outcome at the listed close is not known from this evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window binary contract on Bitcoin's price, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET." It has two outcomes, Up and Down, and it is listed on Polymarket. The contract's rules tie the result to a time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title [1]. The market resolves to Up if that TWAP is greater than or equal to the Bitcoin price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The measurement is specific. The rules state that the market concerns the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. The named stream is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second window [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about that particular data feed rather than about Bitcoin's price as quoted elsewhere. The contract's listed end time is 8:45 PM UTC, which corresponds to 4:45 PM ET on October 15 [1]. That is the time the contract is set to close under its rules. It is not a record that the market has resolved, and the supplied record does not confirm a final resolution outcome. The record was observed at 16:13 UTC and retrieved at 19:38 UTC, and it shows the provider status as active [1]. Those times describe when the information was collected, not when the contract settles.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Bitcoin's average price over a five-minute window, as recorded by one named data feed, finishes at or above its starting level. Because the window is short and the resolution rule is tied to a specific TWAP stream, the wording of the rules determines the result more than general market coverage does [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should check the rule text, the named data stream, and the listed times. The listed end time sets when the window closes, but the rules do not state the resolution time or outcome in the record provided [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated time range, generated by Chainlink, is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source counts for this contract?
Only the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules. The rules say the contract is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title specifies 4:40 PM to 4:45 PM ET on October 15. The listed end time in the rules is 8:45 PM UTC, which matches 4:45 PM ET [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
