Solana Up or Down - October 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the Solana price movement during a five-minute window, titled "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET" [1]. According to the source excerpt, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Solana market on another platform should check whether that platform uses the same data source, averaging method, and time window, since the wording here is specific. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T22:15:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T00:51:28.884Z [1]. It is a record of the provider's data at those times, not a live quote. The recorded prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These values sum to 1.000, but they are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample contains one market, and the coverage record shows it is complete for this saved event: one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. That means no other outcomes for this event were omitted from the record. The sample does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome, but for this single-contract event, there is no ranking or comparison across other contracts to interpret.
The snapshot does not include trading volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not report the Solana price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final result. It also does not explain why the quoted prices are where they are. Because the observation time is the only price timing available, the figures should not be read as the prices at the time of this writing or at the contract's close. The listed status is "active" at retrieval time [1], but the snapshot does not show whether trading conditions have changed since then.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term price market on Solana, titled "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET" and listed in the crypto category. According to the saved record, it is hosted on Polymarket and covers a five-minute window ending at 22:15 UTC on October 26, 2026 [1]. The question is not whether Solana's price rises in a general sense. It is whether one specific measure of price within that window ends up higher or lower than a reference point [1]. The rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The reference point is therefore the price at the start of the window, and the comparison is against an average taken across the whole window rather than a single closing print. An average can move differently from the starting level, so a price that is higher at the end of the window does not automatically mean the average is higher. The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP configuration, as identified in the rules [1]. The rules also say the market concerns the Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a price on a particular exchange should therefore expect that the two may differ, because the rules name a specific data stream. The saved record was observed at 00:00 UTC and retrieved at 00:51 UTC on October 26, 2026, both before the listed end time [1]. At that point the provider status was recorded as active. The end time is the scheduled close of the contract window, not a record of how the market was settled, and this article does not report a resolution outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink SOL/USD time-weighted average price over the five-minute window from 6:10PM to 6:15PM ET is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. It is useful for readers who want to understand how a short-horizon crypto market is defined, because the outcome depends on the specific data stream, the averaging method, and the opening reference price named in the rules. Its design means that brief price swings inside the window can affect the average differently from the endpoints. The rules also make clear that the contract tracks only the named data stream, so it is not a general forecast of Solana's price across all venues [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What happens if the average equals the starting price?
Because the rule uses greater than or equal to, an average equal to the starting price would resolve to Up under the stated wording [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The rules name Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and say the market does not depend on other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract window end?
The listed end time in the saved record is 22:15 UTC on October 26, 2026 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.