Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
PM $0
1
1
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET" [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore not compare this contract with a spot price quote from another venue as if they measured the same thing.
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed close time. It is not evidence of when resolution will be published, and the supplied evidence does not describe a resolution timing process.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices are Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. The provider observation time is 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T04:53:01.175Z [1]. These prices describe the saved snapshot only. They are not live quotes, they are not executable prices, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence does not show prices at the time you read this.
The sample covers one market, and the coverage record marks it as complete for this saved event: one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The evidence states that the saved markets "are included" but "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a binary Up or Down contract, the two prices are the only outcomes recorded.
The evidence includes no volume figures, trader counts, or price history, so it cannot tell you how much trading occurred or whether the price has moved since the snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are equal, and it does not support any claim about the direction of the market. It also does not include any other platform's contract on this event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible from these sources. Any comparison with a differently worded contract, such as one using spot prices or a different time window, would compare different measurements.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is an "Up or Down" market on the Ethereum price for a window stated in its title, October 30, 12:00PM to 4:00PM ET. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over that time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z, which corresponds to the 4:00PM ET end of the title's window [1]. That listed end time is a scheduled close in the contract rules, not a record of when the market resolved. The resolution source is named as information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the ETH/USD pair, and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. A trader reading this contract therefore needs to focus on that specific data stream and averaging method, since a different ETH price feed or an instantaneous spot quote would not determine the outcome. The saved provider record lists the market as active [1]. The market data in this article comes from a single event containing one market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The sample includes every saved market for this event and is not marked as partial, but it describes only what the provider saved and does not establish that every possible outcome is listed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the Ethereum price over a defined window, as represented by the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because the comparison is between the TWAP over the window and the price at the window's beginning, the contract is about the averaged price across the period compared with the starting level rather than a single price at the close [1]. The contract rules name a specific data stream as the resolution source, so the reference point for both the starting price and the averaged price is defined by that source [1]. The prices shown alongside this contract are snapshots of the market at the time of observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The application supplies the dated status and price figures, so readers should check those for the time they were recorded.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price source decides this contract?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that other sources or spot markets do not determine the result [1].
How does the market decide between Up and Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market has already resolved?
No. The listed end time is 2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z [1]. The provider's record describes that as the listed end time, and this article does not have evidence of a resolution outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.