XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
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XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market belongs to the Polymarket event "XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET," in the Crypto category [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The source specifies the XRP/USD TWAP data stream and states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-24T16:40:00.000Z [1]. That is the closing time shown for the contract, not the time the outcome was determined. The contract's rules define the measurement window, so a reader comparing this to a different XRP contract should check whether the window, the reference price, and the data source match.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is timestamped 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T02:15:42.157Z [1]. The quoted prices were: Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this sample, but that alone does not establish a tradable price or a forecast.
The gap between the two prices is 0.010, meaning the snapshot shows a near-even split between the two outcomes. Because the sample is a single saved market, no comparison across platforms or events is made here.
The saved provider status at retrieval was "active" [1]. The archive flag is false. Volume and trader counts are not included in this evidence, so nothing can be said about liquidity or participation.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record shows one market in the saved event, with no partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets are included but "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. This record covers only this binary event.
The evidence does not explain why prices stood where they did, and it does not show any price movement over time. It also does not show the XRP price during the measurement window or any outcome after the listed end time. Readers should treat the 0.505 and 0.495 figures as a description of one saved moment, not a current reading.
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-duration price market on XRP, a digital asset, listed on Polymarket under the title "XRP Up or Down - October 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET" [1]. It asks whether the price of XRP over a five-minute window will end up at or above where it started. The listed end time is 2026-10-24T16:40:00Z [1]. The market's category in the saved record is Crypto. The contract has two outcomes, Up and Down. According to the stated rules, it resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. Because the measure is an average over the window rather than a single price at the close, a brief move late in the window may affect the outcome differently than a move at the end alone would suggest. The resolution source is Chainlink's XRP/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules identify by name and link [1]. The rules state that the market is about the price in that Chainlink stream for the XRP/USD pair, and not about prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. A quoted price on another exchange therefore does not decide this contract. The saved record shows the event as active at the time it was retrieved [1]. The market had not been recorded as resolved in the supplied evidence, so no outcome should be assumed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of XRP's price over a short, fixed window, as represented by Chainlink's TWAP data stream [1]. Its usefulness as a reference depends on the exact rules: the window is set by the title, the comparison is against the starting price of that window, and the measured price is the Chainlink stream rather than any other venue [1]. Readers should keep the observation time, the time the record was retrieved, the listed end time, and the actual resolution separate. The record shows the contract as active at retrieval, and its listed end time is later in the day [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve Up?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of XRP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range [1].
Which price data decides the outcome?
The rules specify Chainlink's XRP/USD TWAP data stream, and they state that other sources and spot markets do not determine the result [1].
Is the market finished?
The saved record describes the event as active when it was retrieved and gives a listed end time of 2026-10-24T16:40:00Z [1]. The supplied evidence does not show a final resolution.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.