Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied rules concern which team hits more sixes in a cricket match between Cyprus and Finland scheduled for 2026-05-08 [1]. The Cyprus outcome is correct if Cyprus is officially recorded as hitting more sixes than Finland, and the Finland outcome is correct under the reverse condition. If both teams record the same number of sixes, the market resolves to "Draw" [1]. Only sixes from the bat count, and the rules state that "Overthrows and extras do not count" and that "Sixes scored in a super over do not count" [1].

The rules also set out cancellation and postponement. If the match is "permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without official sixes statistics being recorded, the market will resolve "Draw"" [1]. If the match is "postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and official statistics are available" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-05-15T07:30:00.000Z [1]. This is a contract date, not evidence that any particular event occurred.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T03:21:22.651Z [1]. These are different timestamps, and both describe a past moment rather than live conditions.

Three markets were saved: Cyprus Winner, Draw, and Finland Winner. Each shows a Yes price of 0.5 and a No price of 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the three Yes prices total 1.5, they should not be read as a probability distribution across the three outcomes. The snapshot also does not explain why prices are at these levels.

Because the three markets use different outcome wording, they should be compared by their rules rather than blended into one figure. The saved sample covers all three markets for this one event, so no other outcomes are included in this comparison.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not show the match result, the official sixes statistics, or whether the match was played on the scheduled date. The status in the snapshot is "active" at the observation time [1]. Because the scheduled date and listed end time both precede the retrieval timestamp, the current status should be checked with the provider before relying on it. The sample warning notes that these saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No volume or trader information is included, and volume would not indicate liquidity or participation in any case.

References

1. Polymarket: T20 Series Cyprus vs Finland: Cyprus vs Finland - Most Sixes. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.