NH-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.6K
1
8
NH-02 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.6K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 15-20% at 26.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 15-20%26.5%
- Democrat 10-15%21.5%
- Democrat 20-25%21%
- Democrat 5-10%13.5%
- Democrat 25-30%13.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $13.6K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 NH-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NH-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket event, "NH-02 House Election Margin of Victory," resolves on the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes. The margin is "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket market asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a stated range, and one market asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins [1].
The rules include several details that affect how a bracket resolves. A value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket. Ties follow a specified order based on ballot-listed last names, and a tie between two unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is the official certified count, and the market stays open through any recount [1].
Two dates matter here. The excerpt says the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The listed end time is a closing time, not a confirmed resolution date. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The prices come from a snapshot observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:22:13.002Z [1]. They describe the saved event at those times and are not live quotes or verified probabilities.
The highest Yes price in the sample is for the bracket "by 15%-20%" at 0.265, followed by "by 10%-15%" at 0.215 and "by 20%-25%" at 0.205 [1]. The Republican win market shows Yes at 0.006 [1]. The eight markets are all included in the saved event (8 of 8, not a partial sample) [1]. The Yes prices across these markets add up to about 1.109, so they should not be read as a coherent probability distribution. The sample also contains no Republican margin brackets, so it does not show how the field might be divided beyond what is listed.
Differences between brackets reflect different thresholds within one contract family, not arbitrage opportunities. Volume is not included in this evidence, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices moved, does not describe recent news, and does not establish how accurate such markets have been. It also does not confirm the candidates in the contract, which may be updated if a nominee is replaced before election day [1]. Readers should check the official certified count and the listed rules at resolution time.
References
- Polymarket: NH-02 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's NH-02 House Election Margin of Victory contract is tied to the 2026 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's second congressional district. The provider states that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The saved market set includes several margin brackets for a Democratic win, such as 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 15%, 15% to 20%, 20% to 25%, 25% to 30%, and 30% or more. It also includes a contract on whether the Republican Party candidate wins the election [1]. Each bracket is a separate yes or no contract. The displayed prices show how the market was priced at the time of the snapshot, and they do not show what a trader could buy or sell at any given moment. The contract uses party nominees rather than all candidates. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as the party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The official vote count is the basis for resolution. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, although overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is certified [1]. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is a closing time for trading in the contract, not a statement that results will be known at that moment. The contract rules also say that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a rule in the contract, not an announced event date. Wikipedia pages in the supplied evidence describe the broader 2026 New Hampshire elections. They say the House elections in New Hampshire will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the state's two U.S. representatives, and that the primary election took place on September 8, 2026 [3]. These pages are background only. They do not confirm the current status of any race or any candidate, and the evidence does not identify the NH-02 nominees.
Historical Context
The supplied background describes the 2026 U.S. House elections in New Hampshire as elections that will be held on November 3, 2026, alongside other House, Senate, and state and local elections. It also notes that the primary election for these elections took place on September 8, 2026 [3]. The evidence does not provide a broader history of the NH-02 seat or prior margins of victory in that district.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the competitiveness of the NH-02 House race in terms of margin rather than winner alone. Because the margin is calculated from the top two candidates' shares of valid votes, a contract on a bracket such as 5% to 10% pays out only if the official result lands in that range [1]. The rules also specify that a result exactly on a boundary between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. This matters for anyone reading the bracket prices, because two adjacent contracts may be sensitive to small changes in the reported result near a cutoff. The contract also includes a separate Republican win contract, so the margin brackets and the winner question are distinct questions on the same event [1]. Readers should not treat the bracket prices as a single probability distribution, because the saved set includes each bracket as its own yes or no contract [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count as Democrat or Republican options?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party. Only the Democratic and Republican Party nominees represent the Democrat and Republican options [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if there is a tie for the most votes?
The rules address ties between listed candidates, between a listed and unlisted candidate, and between unlisted candidates, with a fallback to Other in the last case. In a tie between two listed candidates, the lowest margin bracket applies to the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically [1].
What if a recount is requested?
If a recount starts before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is complete and the vote is made official [1].
What if results are not known by the deadline in the rules?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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