Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

Total Volume

$13.22K

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Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

Vol

$13.22K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.22K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.22K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	44%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$13.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

passenger load factor in 2026 If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above X passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and ex

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** passenger load factor in 2026

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above X passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and ex

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 85.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release.



Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorize"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $29
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $758
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $305
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

Volume$13.22K

Markets10

10 of 10

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KALSHI

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized,

KALSHI

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorize

KALSHI

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized,

KALSHI

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorize

KALSHI

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market refers to the annual figure reported in Alaska Air Group Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized,

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39¢

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Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

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Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

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Events (1)

Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

Markets (10)

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

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Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Air passenger load factor in fiscal 2026

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?

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