BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers the BNB price over a 15-minute window, from 10:30PM to 10:45PM ET on October 19. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1]
The resolution source is the Chainlink data stream, not spot markets. The rules say the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A reader comparing this contract with a BNB price chart from another venue should expect the outcome to depend on this specific feed and averaging method.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:45:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp corresponds to the close of the window named in the title. It is a listed close time, not a record of how the contract resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and this record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:19:53.783Z [1]. Those times describe when the data was captured, not the present. Prices may have changed since then.
In the saved snapshot, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small in this snapshot, and the evidence does not explain it.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because only this single contract is saved, there is no comparison across other markets in this record. The sample warning notes that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1]
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any actual resolution, the price at the start of the window, or the TWAP value over the window. Without those, the outcome cannot be determined from this record.
The evidence also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. Price alone does not indicate how easily a position could be entered or exited.
Finally, the evidence contains no information about events affecting BNB during the window. Any explanation for price movement would go beyond the supplied sources.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on BNB, the asset priced in US dollars through the BNB/USD pair. The market asks whether BNB will finish its stated 15-minute window higher or lower than where it started. The contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET" and is listed on Polymarket [1]. The outcomes are "Up" and "Down." Under the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the measure is an average over the window rather than a single closing print, a move that occurs late in the window affects the result differently than one that occurs early. The price data is set by a specific feed. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP, and the rules state that only this feed counts, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:45:00Z, which corresponds to 10:45 PM ET on October 19 [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB/USD over a single quarter-hour window, as calculated from the Chainlink TWAP data stream named in the rules [1]. Anyone reading its prices should understand that the outcome depends only on that feed and that window, so price moves on other venues do not decide it [1]. The market's price reflects the trading activity on this contract at the time it was recorded, which indicates how participants were pricing the two outcomes at that moment and is not a verified probability of the result.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the TWAP of BNB over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP. The rules say the market concerns that feed and not other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:45:00Z, which is 10:45 PM ET on October 19, 2026 [1].
What did the recorded prices show?
At the recorded observation time, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 in the saved sample [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
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