Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This market is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET" [1]. According to the saved excerpt, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market concerns that stream, "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T08:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should confirm the conversion before comparing the two.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed this market at 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the saved record was retrieved at 2026-10-27T11:05:21.876Z [1]. These are different times, and the prices describe the observation time, not the retrieval time or the present. At observation, the status was active [1]. The recorded prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They sum to 1.000 in this record, which does not establish any tradable spread.

The coverage record lists one market for this event, with one included and no partial sample [1]. Because this is a single binary contract, no cross-contract or cross-platform comparison applies. The 0.010 gap between Up and Down describes this snapshot only.

What remains uncertain

The evidence contains no prices after 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, so it cannot describe pricing at any later time. It also includes no volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold either side. The excerpt does not state the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, and no resolution appears in the evidence. The sample warning notes that saved records do not establish that providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. Readers should check the provider page directly for any current information.

References

1. Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.