Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied rules describe a Bournemouth vs Aston Villa EFL Cup game "originally scheduled for Oct 28, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties" [1]. Only the regulation-time result counts. The "Bournemouth wins" and "Aston Villa wins" contracts resolve on the team that wins in that window, and the "Tie is the result" contract resolves to Yes if "the game ends in a tie" [1]. A game decided after extra time or penalties would not change the regulation result these rules describe.

The rules also say that if the game "is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules" [1]. Readers should check that clause before treating any contract as a clean win-or-loss bet.

Reading the snapshot

The saved market data was observed at 2026-10-23T00:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-23T01:46:40Z. These times describe when the data was captured, not live prices. The three Yes prices were 0.435 for Bournemouth, 0.305 for Aston Villa, and 0.255 for a tie. These are snapshot prices from one provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They sum to 0.995, so the three contracts together do not imply anything beyond these recorded quotes.

All three contracts come from Kalshi, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Each contract also has its own wording. Since the outcomes differ in kind, the prices should not be combined into a single average or ranked against outside markets.

The market data lists an end date of 2026-10-30T19:45:00Z for all three contracts. The provider status line in the rules excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied." This is a listed close time in the market record, not the scheduled date of the game, and the evidence does not explain how the two were set.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all three saved markets for this event, and the sample is not marked partial. However, the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on any contract does not imply anything about omitted outcomes.

The evidence does not show why prices were at these levels, how many traders were involved, or how much volume or liquidity the contracts had. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count. The evidence also contains no current news about the teams or the fixture, so readers should check the provider and the official rules for any later changes.

References

1. Kalshi: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.