Top Coding AI this week
K 20 contracts
1
9
Top Coding AI this week
K 20 contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Dola at 49%.
Kalshi
- Dola49%
- Qwen46%
- MiniMax46%
- Kimi46%
- Grok46%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 20 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 2, 2026 If X is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Nov 2, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/, the number of candidates tied, rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event is "Top Coding AI this week" on Kalshi. Its rule states that if X is the #1 model on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 26, 2026 at 10:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each listed market asks about one named model, and the rules describe how ties are handled. If the publisher has no tie-breaking methodology, tied entities share the highest rank among them, and if several candidates are tied for a rank, their contracts resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down [1]. The rule also says the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Close timing is stated in two places. The rule refers to 10:00am ET on Oct 26, 2026 [1], and the market records list an end date of 2026-10-26T14:00:00.000Z [1]. The source's listed end time field reads "not supplied," so the rule text is the only written close reference.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-23T04:38:09.274Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier observation, not live conditions at the time of reading.
Within the snapshot, the Claude market has the highest quoted Yes price at 0.935, with No at 0.065 [1]. Most other models are quoted at 0.475 Yes, while Grok is at 0.47 Yes and Qwen at 0.025 Yes [1]. Each market's Yes and No prices sum to one, so each is a complementary pair within that contract.
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample contains nine markets, all included, with no partial sample flag [1]. The source also cautions that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Because the markets are separate contracts, the prices should not be averaged or combined into a single figure. A price gap between two contracts also does not, by itself, indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not report trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders. The source does not include recent news about the leaderboard, and it does not provide any historical accuracy record for these prices. The resolution outcome is not yet known from this evidence. A reader should check the current contract page and the official leaderboard before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: Top Coding AI this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract belongs to a Kalshi event titled "Top Coding AI this week." The event asks which AI model will rank first on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard at a specified time. According to the contract rules, if X is the #1 model on that leaderboard on Oct 26, 2026 at 10:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The contract therefore measures a single ranking at a single moment, not performance over the whole week. The event's listed status is active, and the rules say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The rules also explain how ties are handled. If tied rankings occur, they are resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology. If no such methodology exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them [1]. If several candidates are tied for a given rank, their contracts resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down [1]. Traders reading the contract should therefore check the leaderboard's tie handling as well as the headline ranking. The saved event lists nine candidate models: Claude, MiniMax, Kimi, GLM, Gemini, Dola, ChatGPT, Grok, and Qwen. Each has its own Yes and No contract within the same event [1]. The saved market records carry an end date of 2026-10-26 at 14:00 UTC, which matches the 10:00am ET timing in the rules [1]. That timestamp is a field in the provider data and the contract rules. It is not evidence of any separate announcement. Claude, one of the named candidates, is described by Wikipedia as a series of large language models developed by American software company Anthropic. It was released as an AI-based chatbot in March 2023 and is also used in AI-assisted software development [2]. Anthropic sells Claude-based agentic tools, including Claude Code, a terminal coding agent [2]. Wikipedia's description is background about the product family and does not indicate where Claude ranks on the leaderboard. The contract is tied to a leaderboard position, so its resolution depends on the leaderboard's status at the stated time. Wikipedia pages do not establish current rankings or current events, and this article does not draw on them for any ranking claim.
Historical Context
Wikipedia states that Claude was released as an AI-based chatbot in March 2023 [2]. The supplied sources do not provide a wider history of the LM Code Arena Leaderboard or of the other candidate models.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which model is ranked first on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard at 10:00am ET on Oct 26, 2026 [1]. Its value depends on a specific ranking at a specific moment, so it differs from a general judgment of which coding AI is best. The tie rules change the payout when more than one model shares the top rank, so the contract's wording matters as much as the headline question [1]. The contract also states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League [1]. Readers should not treat the market as an official league product.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether a Yes contract resolves to $1?
The market resolves to Yes if the named model is the #1 model on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Oct 26, 2026 at 10:00am ET [1].
What happens if two or more models are tied for first place?
Tied rankings are resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology. If none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them [1]. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, their contracts resolve to $1 divided by the number of candidates tied, rounded down [1].
Does the market close before the stated time?
The rules say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Is Kalshi affiliated with the leaderboard's governing body?
The rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League [1].
Does the saved end date show when the leaderboard result is known?
The saved market records show an end date of 2026-10-26 at 14:00 UTC [1]. This matches the 10:00am ET timing in the rules, which is the point at which the leaderboard is checked [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
