Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event covers the Hyperliquid price over a window stated in its title, 3:10PM to 3:15PM ET on November 2 [1]. The rules say the market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers should note that the title says Hyperliquid, while the contract is tied to the HYPE/USD pair in that specific stream.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z and retrieved at 2026-11-02T02:42:25.757Z [1]. It lists Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the two prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot, the Up price sits 0.01 above the Down price at observation time. This describes the saved data only, not the market at any later moment.
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T20:15:00.000Z, and the provider status was active when saved [1]. The contract's rules name a window in ET, while the listed end time is in UTC. Readers comparing these should use the stated end time rather than converting the title independently.
The coverage record shows one market from one provider event, with all saved markets included and no partial sample [1]. No other platform or contract is included here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Different contracts can carry different prices because their rules differ, and such differences do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it does not show how many traders hold either side. It also contains no volume, liquidity, or order book data that would indicate how executable these prices would be. The saved excerpt does not include the outcome, so whether the TWAP finished at or above the starting price cannot be determined from this record.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-term price contract on HYPE/USD, the Hyperliquid token priced against the US dollar. It asks whether the price over a specific five-minute window ends up higher or lower than where the window started. The title sets the window as November 2, 3:10PM to 3:15PM ET [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison therefore uses an average across the window rather than a single price at its close, and a result that exactly equals the starting price counts as "Up" [1]. The named resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, referenced at data.chain.link [1]. The source states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not the prices reported by other sources or spot markets [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should therefore check it against the same stream, since a different exchange or aggregator could show a different movement over the same minutes. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-02T20:15:00.000Z [1]. The provider's status for the event is recorded as active in the saved record [1]. These fields describe the contract's stated timing and the provider's listing, and they do not show that the window has already closed or that a result has been published.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of HYPE/USD over one short, fixed window. Its outcome depends on whether the Chainlink TWAP for 3:10PM to 3:15PM ET is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rule uses an average over the window, the result reflects the path of prices during the window rather than only the endpoints. Because the rule names a specific data stream, the contract isolates one reference price feed instead of general market sentiment about Hyperliquid [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this market resolve to "Up"?
It resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the 3:10PM to 3:15PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What makes it resolve to "Down"?
If the window's TWAP is not greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window, the market resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price data counts for resolution?
The contract specifies the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and states that prices from other sources or spot markets are not the reference [1].
What is the listed end time?
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T20:15:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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