Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent

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$1.95K

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CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent

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$1.95K

Events

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $1.95K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	95%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	82%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	66%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	45%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	28%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	14%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	6%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Derek Tran receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$1.95K

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Derek Tran If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear i

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Derek Tran

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 66% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Derek Tran receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Derek Tran receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Derek Tran receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Derek Tran receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent

Volume$1.95K

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KALSHI

Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 54% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

KALSHI

Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 58% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100,

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/xdpZjC" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent"></iframe>

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CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent

CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent

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Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

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Events (1)

CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent

Markets (9)

Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

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Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent

Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

Will Derek Tran receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-45 House election?

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