ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
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ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ZEC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/zec-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ZEC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a single five-minute window, ZCash Up or Down for 1:45PM to 1:50PM ET on October 15. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the range, and "Down" otherwise [1]. The rules name the resolution source as the Chainlink ZEC/USD TWAP data stream and state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ZEC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-15T17:50:00.000Z [1], which matches 1:50PM ET under the offset implied by that timestamp.
Reading the snapshot
The record contains one Polymarket market with two outcomes, Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, which is earlier than the contract window itself. The retrieval time is 2026-10-15T19:15:35.227Z, after the listed end time. These are different timestamps, and the prices describe the market at observation time only, not at retrieval or at close.
The prices are snapshot values. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the two outcomes are priced equally in this snapshot, the record shows a tie at observation time and nothing more. Volume and the number of participants are not included in the evidence, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity.
The sample covers all saved markets for this provider event: one market, with no partial sampling [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome, but for this binary Up or Down contract the two outcomes are the full set in the record.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the final resolution. The saved record reports the provider status as "active" [1], and that status reflects the retrieval context, not a settled result. The data does not include the ZCash prices that feed the TWAP, the starting price, or the computed window average, so the outcome cannot be determined from this evidence. No explanation for the 0.5 pricing is available in the supplied material.
References
- Polymarket: ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price question about ZCash (ZEC) against US dollars, titled "ZCash Up or Down - October 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET" and listed in the crypto category [1]. According to the contract rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZEC over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The window in the title corresponds to a listed end time of 17:50 UTC on October 15, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask whether ZCash's price will rise or fall in a general sense. It asks how the average price during a five-minute interval compares with the price at the start of that interval. Averaging over time means a single brief spike or dip at the start or end of the window carries less weight than a sustained move, although the rules themselves only state the comparison and do not describe any further mechanics [1]. The rules specify which data governs resolution. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the ZEC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also state that the market is about the price in that Chainlink data stream and not about any other source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing this contract with ZEC prices on an exchange should therefore keep in mind that the exchange price is not the reference used here. At the time the provider data was observed, the two outcomes were priced at 0.5 for "Up" and 0.5 for "Down" [1]. These figures are a snapshot of trading prices at that moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not indicate how the contract later resolved. The evidence available here does not include the final resolution result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average ZEC/USD price over a five-minute window, as reported in a specific Chainlink data stream, is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the reference is a defined data stream rather than a general market price, the outcome depends on that stream's values alone [1]. Traders and observers reading the contract's price snapshots are looking at the market's view of that narrow comparison at a given time, which is a different question from the broader direction of the ZCash market [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of ZCash over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price data is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is the Chainlink ZEC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title specifies 1:45PM to 1:50PM ET on October 15, and the listed end time is 17:50 UTC on October 15, 2026 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
