Dogecoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down over a short window. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named resolution source is the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns that feed "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved sample contains one Polymarket market with two outcomes: Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. The coverage record lists one included market out of one total, and it is not flagged as a partial sample [1]. Equal prices mean the snapshot showed the two sides level. They do not show which direction traders favor or why.
These figures are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The observation time was 2026-10-28T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T03:45:53Z [1]. No volume figures are supplied, so the evidence says nothing about liquidity or the number of participants.
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T16:25:00Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time clock times, so readers comparing it with local schedules should convert carefully. The end time marks when the listing closes. It is not a resolution result, and the evidence does not show how the contract resolved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show prices after the 03:00 UTC observation, so the current price may differ. The snapshot also does not reveal the starting price for the window or the path of the TWAP, which determine the outcome under the rules [1].
Because only one provider and one market appear, no cross-platform comparison is possible. The sample warning notes that the saved data "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The sample therefore describes only this saved event, not every related contract.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price market on Dogecoin, titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET." It is listed on Polymarket under the Crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether the price of DOGE/USD over a five-minute window will move up or down, and it is settled using a specific data feed rather than any general market price. The resolution rule compares two values. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, over the time range in the title, is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rule therefore depends on the average price across the window compared with the starting price, not on the price at the end of the window. The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, which the contract identifies as the 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The contract states that only this Chainlink data stream counts. Prices on other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1]. The saved market record shows two outcomes, Up and Down, each recorded at 0.5 in the snapshot taken at 2026-10-28T03:00:06Z. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T16:25:00Z, which corresponds to 12:25 PM ET, and the event was recorded as active when retrieved at 2026-10-28T03:45:53Z [1]. These are historical snapshot values. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of either outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average DOGE/USD price over a five-minute window, as reported by Chainlink's 60-second TWAP data stream, is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window, a brief spike or drop near the end does not decide the outcome on its own. Because it uses one named data stream, the result is tied to that feed's published values and not to whichever exchange price a reader might check. The contract is therefore a narrow test of short-term price direction under specific settlement mechanics [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this contract decide between Up and Down?
It resolves to Up if the TWAP of Dogecoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source settles the market?
The contract specifies Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream. It states that prices from other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Does a price of 0.5 for each outcome mean the result is a coin flip?
No. The saved prices are snapshots of a market listing and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes. The recorded values were 0.5 for Up and 0.5 for Down at the observation time shown in the market record [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T16:25:00Z, which matches 12:25 PM ET on the contract title. The end time is the listed close, not a record of how the market resolved [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.