Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET" [1]. Its rule states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].

The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rule says the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T19:50:00.000Z [1]. The title's window is expressed in Eastern Time, so readers comparing it with other contracts should check that both are using the same window and time zone.

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T22:00:18.654Z [1]. Both times are earlier than the current moment, so the prices below describe that snapshot only and may not reflect current conditions.

The snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are provider-reported prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The record does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view.

The coverage record lists one market from one platform, with all saved markets included and no partial sample [1]. Because only this contract is present, there is no other market in the evidence to compare it against. Its status was recorded as "active" at the time of the snapshot [1].

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show whether the contract has resolved, what the TWAP value was for the window, or which outcome occurred. Nothing in the supplied material explains why the prices sit near even odds.

The sample also does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this window, since the source notes that it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any price difference between this contract and a differently worded contract on another platform would not by itself indicate an opportunity, because the rules, data sources, and close times may differ.

References

1. Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z.